58cv网址导航Markets are difficult to measure. Mainly because the information is not easy to obtain and that which is obtained is not made public. Collecting, analyzing and filling in the gaps is big business with many firms involved in selling it.
However, with all the analysts and companies selling and promoting their “numbers” it’s important to understand the difference between the methods used. There are for instance at least the following measurements:
Units sold to end users. For example NPD or GfK data of retail transactions. Also Gartner’s estimates for phone units sold.
Units sold to the channel. For example units recognized on income statements usually reported by companies. Also IDC’s estimates for phone units sold.
Units in use. For example comScore and Nielsen survey data.
Units “activated”. The measurement Google uses to describe Android performance.
Intent to buy. For example ChangeWave surveys of early adopters.
Utilization rate. For example browser statistics.
Each measurement tells a different story about the market but the best story is told when all data is analyzed in a combined integrated market review.
Before diving into that it’s important to understand the difference between the first and second measurements or the difference between shipped and sold.
What does “Sold” mean?
Let’s say that you sell a phone to another party. What constitutes a sale? The sales agreement? That you shipped it? That he wanted it? That you were paid for it?
What if he changes his mind and returns it? Is it still a sale? What if a manager’s bonus depends on these sales? What if the company’s share price depends on these sales? Is there a way to rig the accounting?
As it turns out, many ways. Unethical and fraudulent practices happen surprisingly often. A classic instance would be: A customer is shipped ten phones, though he only wants one, and he gets paid to ship the other nine back, after the close of the year.
The sales manager records ten times the sales he actually made, making ten times the commission and the company’s stock price rises. To compound the offense, the manager could also tip his friends to short the stock at the end of the year, leaving investors “holding the bag” when the inevitable correction follows.
There have been so many cases of this kind of accounting fraud that the FASB (GAAP), SEC, and IFRS have placed a very stringent definition on “revenue recognition”. This means that although you can sell all you want, the company can only recognize the proceeds and profit in the financial statements according to strict rules.
In the case of hardware (Sales of Goods), the customer must receive it (“delivery has occurred”), and like it enough to not return it (“amount to be refunded”), and be able to pay for it (“collection is probable”). If some are projected to be returned or unpaid, that percent is subtracted from total revenue. In the case of software (Sales of Services), it is generally accounted for over a time period. And because it is customary to send the customer upgrades, the revenue must be spread out over the time the service is provided. (“upgrade rights … 24 to 48 months.”)
It gets complicated when a piece of hardware has upgradeable software. The rules used to stipulate that the hardware, in its entirety, must be accounted for as a service and have subscription accounting. This is how Apple had to report sales during the first few years of the iPhone. It still defers some revenues for its hardware, mainly on account of iCloud, but the vast bulk of hardware revenue (96%) is now accounted upfront, recognized upon the product’s acceptance by customers. 4% is for software upgrades and is accounted for over a specific lifetime of the product (24 months in the case of the iPhone).
What does “Shipped” mean?
The discussion so far implies that if a product that is accounted for as “Sold” on an income statement does not mean that it’s in the hands of an end user. These “revenue recognized” products are sold to a distributor, typically for a phone that’s an operator.
These sales satisfy the requirements for financial reporting as revenues booked. But they are not in the hands of users. Nor are they “activated” and they don’t generate page views that are measured by web analytics companies. Most analysts and companies now use the phrase “Shipped” to describe these revenue-recognized units though it’s also common to hear “sold”.
When a product sells to end users it’s sometimes called “sell-through”. It’s counterpart is “sell-in” which is sales to the channel distributors.
A big gap between sell-in and sell-through might imply large amounts of in-channel inventory. This is product that is sitting either in stores or in warehouses or on trucks in transit. If sales are steady, the inventory is measured in time as in “weeks of inventory”. This means that the excess is expected to be sold within a fixed time frame if shipments were to end. The smaller this amount, the better or “tighter” the operations are. Inventory, as Tim Cooks says, is fundamentally evil. It eats capital and erodes profitability.
Sometimes miscalculation of sell-through could result in vast amounts of inventory that has to be returned by distributors. That inventory is either written off or sold at fire sale prices resulting in a “write-down”. This happened recently with both the HP TouchPad and with the RIM PlayBook. This special charge against income is a one-time (usually) incident but it can also affect a firm’s reputation with channel partners for a long time. This type of failure is very costly.
Therefore what matters most is to keep the difference between Sell-in and Sell-through as small as possible. However, it can’t be too small. Sometimes if Sell-through is too fast, you get stock-outs which means that there is more demand than supply and sales opportunities are missed. This has happened many times with iPhones and iPads. This is also an unwanted situation (unless there was too much inventory in the channel during the previous period and thus it was being drained in the current period.)
The chart to the left shows how the phone market looked for various vendors last quarter. I compiled the data based on Gartner’s “sales to end users” and IDC’s “shipments” data. Two vendors had higher sell-through than sell-in (Nokia and LG) probably because they were draining excess inventory. The others had channel inventory of between 5% and 10% of units shipped.
This ratio is shown below in a chart comparing the largest phone vendors.
Management is often rated for performance on this metric, as they should be, since it’s a measure of operational skill. However, there are many factors that affect overall performance.
New product launches, windows of opportunity related to seasonal buying patterns, anticipating macroeconomic slowdowns, even natural disasters and legal challenges can affect this metric.
Understanding the overall market requires an appreciation of this distinction but also an understanding of all the other metrics listed above and what stories they tell.
Notes: My thanks to Michael Dediu for input on this discussion.
Pingback: ()
Pingback: ()
Pingback: ()
Pingback: ()
Would you like me to speak at your event? If so, click the photo below.
Reach 120k Subscribers:
Subscribe2Not sure which service is right for you?
Service Guide
The FedEx Service Guide is your resource for FedEx service information and shipping basics.
Have specific questions? Visit
Pack, ship and more at over 1,800 locations. Stop in for convenient access to FedEx Express(R) and FedEx Ground(R) shipping services, supplies, boxes and packing help.
Copy and Print
Design, print and ship documents anywhere, anytime. Print online, In store or by downloading our mobile app. Let us help your business or personal projects with a professional touch.
Signs and Banners
Create high-impact banners, signs, posters and more for everything from business events to home projects. We make it easy to bring your ideas to life with our know-how to get it done.
Schedule a Pickup
Remember MeLogin
New Customer?
Welcome Back,
It's faster and easier to access pickups online. Plus you have a record you can check.
With the Schedule a Pickup tool, you can quickly and easily schedule a FedEx(R) pickup of your shipments. Plus, it's only when you schedule online that you can access My Pickups to view a record of your pickup history so you can view, edit or cancel your pickups. It's fast and easy.
Handle pickups online
Access your pickup details to schedule, view, edit and cancel pickups all with just a few clicks.
Schedule pickups online
Schedule one-time pickups for FedEx Express&, FedEx Ground& and FedEx Express& Freight shipments.
View My Pickups
See regular scheduled and one-time pickups online. Filter your pickup history by date, time, address, status or type. You can also view completed and cancelled pickups, up to 30 days.
Edit and cancel pickups
You can edit your one-time pickups. You can also cancel regular scheduled and one-time pickups to eliminate multiple pickups on the same day and unneeded trips for your local driver*.
Create email notifications
Send to up to three recipients, in HTML, email or wireless formats, to ensure that your colleagues know that you have scheduled a pickup.
Assign pickup details
Specify ready time, latest time and special instructions.
Integrate with your online FedEx Ship Manager& Address Book
Add new pickup locations and save changes.
*When you cancel a pickup, it displays initially as cancelled, but please allow some time for all of our systems to update. &Please note that if you return to the site a short time after the cancellation, the site may not yet reflect the change. &If you see the cancellation confirmation once, we received your request, and we appreciate your taking the time to tell us.
Schedule pickups for multiple FedEx& services simultaneously
You can schedule one pickup each for FedEx Express&, FedEx Ground& and FedEx Express& Freight shipments all within the same pickup request. Just click the appropriate service-type boxes under Package Information.
Cancel unneeded pickups
Have a regular or one-time pickup scheduled but don't have any shipments going out? Simply log in to your account, view My Pickups and select the pickup you&d like to cancel. You can cancel your pickup up to two weeks ahead of time. Plus, each time you cancel an unnecessary scheduled pickup, you&re helping us to minimize carbon emissions*.
Ensure trouble-free scheduling for FedEx Ground& pickups
If you&re having trouble scheduling a FedEx Ground pickup, try broadening the time frame. Set Ready Time to the beginning of the day and Latest Time Available to the end of the day.
Add personal messages to email notifications
Just click Add a Personal Message and enter your personalized message to your email notification**.
Recommended resources and companion tools
Interactive Help Guide by watching, practicing, being guided or printing intructions.
Scheduling FedEx Ground& returns pickupsJust complete this .
FedEx Freight& pickups of options available to you.
Scheduling FedEx Freight& LTL (less-than-truckload) pickupsJust complete this .
Find FedEx Locations for nearby spots to drop off shipments or get document services.
FedEx Office about your destination for printing, document services and more.
FedEx& Returns solutions how returns can be easy on customers and help differentiate your business.
More returns pickup options about FedEx ExpressTag& and FedEx Ground& Call Tag.
FedEx& Mobile solutions how to track, create labels, get rates and more, all on the go.
FedEx Ship Manager&
about how to quickly prepare shipments online.
Get Rates and Transit TimesUse this
to get rate quotes and expected delivery dates and times.
Order Supplies Online to get FedEx shipping materials sent directly to you.
*When you cancel a pickup, it displays initially as cancelled, but please allow some time for all of our systems to update. &Please note that if you return to the site a short time after the cancellation, the site may not yet reflect the change. &If you see the cancellation confirmation once, we received your request, and we appreciate your taking the time to tell us.**Please note that personal messages can be a maximum of 120 characters and are not available for the wireless format, nor for non English characters.
Help minimize unnecessary trips
Have a scheduled pickup but don&t have any shipments? Simply cancel your regular scheduled or one-time pickups online. It's fast and easy, and you'll also help us minimize our carbon emissions. Plus, avoid disruptions to your business*.
*When you cancel a pickup, it displays initially as cancelled, but please allow some time for all of our systems to update. &Please note that if you return to the site a short time after the cancellation, the site may not yet reflect the change. &If you see the cancellation confirmation once, we received your request, and we appreciate your taking the time to tell us.
Featured Services
Other Resources
Follow FedEx
& FedEx 1995-