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As of June 24, 2002 the Select Sector SPDR Trust instituted the following changes: The Basic Industries Select Sector SPDR Fund changed its name to the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund. The Consumer Services Select Sector SPDR Fund changed its name to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund. The Cyclical/Transportation Select Sector SPDR Fund changed its name to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund.
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The Energy ETF was the No. 2 performer ranked by returns among the 9 Select Sector SPDRs during the first half of this year.
Sector rotation qua sector rotation appears to have had either little or no role in the ETF’s share-price performance in 2014.
Its key driver seems to be the spike in the price of crude oil caused by recent developments in geopolitics.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:) in the first half of this year ranked No. 2 by returns among the Select Sector SPDRs that split the S&P 500 into nine segments. On an adjusted share-price basis, XLE ballooned to $100.10 from $87.67, a burgeoning of $12.43, or 14.18 percent.XLE thus overperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:) by a lot and underperformed the
(NYSEARCA:) by a little. During the first half, the former grew to $195.72 from $183.00, an increase of $12.72, or 6.95 percent, while the latter progressed to $44.26 from $37.34, a yield of $6.92, or 18.53 percent.Almost all the differences in relative performance among the
in the first half appear attributable to the sector rotation one would anticipate at this late point in the economic/market cycle. However, XLE seems to be stepping to the music of a different drummer, one associated with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL.Figure 1: XLE No. 2 Among Select Sector SPDR ETFs This Year(click to enlarge)Source: This J.J.'s Risky Business chart is based on analyses of adjusted daily share-price data at .Both the overperformance of the Utilities, Health Care (NYSEARCA:), Materials (NYSEARCA:) and Technology (NYSEARCA:) SPDRs and the underperformance of the Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:), Financial (NYSEARCA:), Industrial (NYSEARCA:) and Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:) SPDRs appear broadly consistent with sector-rotation theory, as discussed by Alessandro Beber, Michael W. Brandt and Kenneth A. Kavajecz in their
working paper, What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?However, the acceleration in XLE's performance from the first quarter to the second quarter seems to have had either little or nothing to do with sector rotation.Figure 2: Crude Price Per Barrel And XLE Price Per Share(click to enlarge)Source: This J.J.'s Risky Business chart is based on the monthly adjusted price per share of XLE available at
and the monthly unweighted average of the daily closing spot price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil at Cushing, Okla., (WTI-Cushing) calculated by the .Note: The WTI-Cushing datum for June 2014 is an estimated number founded on EIA daily data for the first 16 trading days of the month. The actual number will be reported July 9.Geopolitics has been among the biggest drivers of the price not only of crude oil but also of XLE in the 21st century, as indicated by their performances since the SPDR was launched in December 1998 (Figure 2). Both the long-term effect of the American government's choice to invade Iraq in March 2003 and the short-term impact of the Chinese government's decision to accumulate a wide assortment of commodities in advance of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games in August are clearly discernible.One consequence of the Iraq War is the ISIL, an actual movement with potential implications for crude production in a country that in 2012 ranked No. 5 in proved reserves of oil with 143.1 billion barrels and No. 8 in production of oil with 3.0 million barrels per day, .If the Iraqi crude-oil flow were to be disrupted by the ISIL in a major way any time soon, then the prices of the commodity and XLE most likely would climb even faster in the second half than they did in the first half of this year. To put this possibility in its proper perspective, EIA data suggested the estimated monthly unweighted average of the daily closing spot price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, OK, increased to $105.56 in June from $94.62 in January, a rise of $10.94, or 11.56 percent.Figure 3: XLE Monthly Change, 2014 Versus
Mean(click to enlarge)Source: This J.J.'s Risky Business chart is based on analyses of adjusted monthly share-price data at Yahoo Finance.XLE behaved better in the first half of this year than it performed in the first halves of its initial 15 full years of existence based on the means calculated by employing data associated with that historical period (Figure 3). The same data set shows the average year's first half has been stronger than its second half, in terms of the ETF's share price. Because of the developments in the Middle East mentioned above, however, this seasonal tendency may not manifest itself this year.Figure 4: XLE Monthly Change, 2014 Versus
Median(click to enlarge)Source: This J.J.'s Risky Business chart is based on analyses of adjusted monthly share-price data at Yahoo Finance.XLE also behaved better in the first half of this year than it performed in the first halves of its initial 15 full years of existence based on the means calculated by using data associated with that historical period (Figure 4). The same data set also shows the average year's first half has been stronger than its second half, in terms of the ETF's share price. Again due to the developments in the Middle East mentioned above, this seasonal tendency may not manifest itself this year.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein by the author do not constitute an investment recommendation, and they are unsuitable for employment in the making of investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein address only certain aspects of potential investment in any securities and cannot substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. The opinions expressed herein are based on an incomplete set of information, illustrative in nature, and limited in scope. In addition, the opinions expressed herein reflect the author's best judgment as of the date of publication, and they are subject to change without notice.Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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These firms are some of the largest vehicle manufacturers in the world. They produce the obvious cars, trucks, buses, vans, and motorcycles. Recreational vehicles, mini-vans, luxury cars, components, and construction equipment are some of their other related items on the production lines. Many firms also offer financing of their goods and in a field tied to vehicle financing, one firm here offers mortgages and even auto and homeowner's insurance. They typically sell their product to the consumer through auto dealerships located domestically and abroad.
lululemon Beats by Two Cents
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The consensus earnings estimate was $0.73 per share on revenue of $601.6 million for the quarter ending January 31, 2015. ...
Tiffany Reports In-line
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The consensus earnings estimate was $1.50 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion for the quarter ending January 31, 2015.
The Earnings ...
Nike Reports In-line
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The consensus earnings estimate was $0.84 per share on revenue of $7.65 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2015.
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Lennar Misses
3/19/:00 AM
Lennar Corp. () reported first quarter earnings of $0.50 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion.
The consensus earnings estimate was $0.45 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2015.
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Oracle Reports In-line
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OmniVision Technologies, Inc. designs, develops and markets high performance, high quality and cost efficient semiconductor imaging devices for computing, communications and consumer electronics applications. The company's product, an image sensor, is used to capture an image in cameras and camera related products such as personal computer cameras, digital still cameras, personal digital assistant cameras and mobile phone cameras. The company has developed image sensors using the standard semiconductor manufacturing process used for modern integrated circuits.
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Performant Financial Corporation is engaged in providing technology-enabled recovery and related analytics services in the United States. The company's services help identify and recover delinquent or defaulted assets and improper payments for both government and private clients. Services offered by the company includes financial asset recovery, risk management, audit and recovery cost containment and fraud, waste and abuse marketplace. Performant provides its services on an outsourced basis. It provides services to clients in a range of different markets which includes student lending and healthcare, delinquent state taxes and federal Treasury and other receivables. Performant Financial Corporation is headquartered in Livermore, California.
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Copyright © 1998 - . All rights reserved.Trading oil selloff
The FMHR traders share their energy forecasts, and what stocks they're buying.
It's news to no one that energy was the bad boy of 2014. Surging U.S. production and slowing demand halved the price of oil and made the energy sector the year's worst performing one amid a broader bull market.
But at some point, there has to be a bottom in oil prices, and investors who look past the obvious (and understandable) fear will make a lot of money, right? C'mon, you know you've been thinking about it. And if you haven't been, you're violating Warren Buffett's No. 1 rule of investing: The best time to be greedy is when everyone is fearful. And you're out of step with market peers who are not being so timid: Broad energy ETFs have seen huge inflows this month.
The energy sector is worth a look even for investors wary of a short-term rebound trade. It has notched solid long-term returns, outperforming the S&P 500 seven years out of the past 10, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Brittany Sowacke | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Workers connect drill bits and drill collars, used to extract natural petroleum, on Endeavor Energy Resources LP's Big Dog Drilling Rig 22 in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas.
And demand for oil is still growing, though more slowly, said Fadel Gheit, Oppenheimer & Co.'s senior energy analyst. "There will be more people using more energy," he said, "but more efficiently."
"Saudi Arabia is playing hardball and has huge cash reserves to ride out lower oil prices," Gheit said. "It's drawing a line in the sand." But oil stocks, which tend to be overbought or oversold, are still good investments long-term, he said.
With a hefty discount to the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, energy stocks look enticing. Consider this factoid from S&P Capital IQ: There have been six times since 1990 that the S&P 500 Energy Index traded at or below its current "relative strength" reading. Over a 24-month time frame, the S&P 500 Energy Index was positive six of those six times and beat the S&P 500 five of six times. It also outpaced the S&P 500 by an average 16.2 percentage points. In comparison to the last nine historical oil price shocks, there have only been two times when energy has been cheaper on a relative basis when oil prices troughed: in the wake of 9/11 and in late 2006.
Some market pundits think energy is set up to be a classic value trap, but some financial advisors say that it's time to tiptoe back into energy using ETFs, especially for investors with a patient, long-term outlook.
"I'd be adding energy ETFs right now," said Joseph Tatusko, chief investment officer at Westport Resources Management in Connecticut. Since no one knows when oil prices will hit their bottom, Tatusko also recommends using dollar cost averaging, which helps lessen risk. Dollar cost averaging is buying a fixed amount of a stock, or fund, on a fixed schedule so you don't invest too much at any one time in what can be a volatile market.
Big oil ETFs
Tatusko especially likes the Vanguard Energy ETF (). It currently has 168 holdings, though integrated global oil and gas majors make up a big chunk of the ETF (38 percent) and have slumped less than 25 percent of the ETF in oil and gas exploration stocks. In the market cap-weighted fund,
and the rest of the top 10 holdings comprise 62 percent of VDE. Its top-heavy approach has helped to keep the ETF's losses smaller than some peers, Tatusko said. Year-to-date it's down 9 percent, though VDE is up on average 8 percent annually over a five-year span.
Vanguard Energy has paid out a 2.1 percent yield in the trailing 12-month period and has a low expense ratio of only 0.12 percent, Tatusko said (it is one of the sector ETFs on which Vanguard recently decided to lower fees as the price war among ETF providers continues).
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF () is another big, diversified energy ETF. Exxon Mobil is again the largest holding (and the rest of the top 10 looks very similar to VDE), at 16.5 percent of assets. Though Energy Select is down a little more than 7 percent year-to-date, it has also generated a five-year average annual return of more than 8 percent, and it has paid out a 2.3 percent dividend in the trailing 12-month period.
For short-term investors, Tatusko likes the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (). The ETF is down 13 percent this year, its five-year return is a little below the return of the market-cap energy ETFs, and it has a much higher expense ratio at 0.40 percent. However, it may rise faster during an energy rebound, Tatusko said, because it's equal weighted. For example, the largest holding is the petroleum refining and selling company , which is only 3.5 percent of assets.
Broad U.S. energy ETFs(Ranked by largest year-to-date losses, through Dec. 29,
data, excluding inverse/leverage ETFs)
8. PowerShares S&P Small-Cap Energy (PSCE): -35 percent
7. PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum (PXI): -17 percent
6. First Trust Energy AlphaDEX (FXN): -14.7 percent5. Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight Energy (RYE): -13.3 percent
4. Vanguard Energy (VDE): -8.7 percent
3. Fidelity MSCI Energy (FENY): -8.5 percent
2. iShares U.S. Energy (IYE): -8.4 percent
1. Energy Select SPDR (XLE): -7.2 percent
Energy ETFs exposure
Exposure to U.S. oil and gas is 92 percent or greater for the eight broad, unleveraged energy ETFs.
All long energy ETFs lost money in the past three months, according . Excluding inverse and leverage funds, ETFs with extra exposure to smaller firms (PSCE, FXN, RYE) and a momentum play (PXI, which also has outsized small-cap exposure) were hard hit,
analyst Paul Britt.
PXI, for example, has 44 percent exposure to oil and gas exploration, significantly more than the energy sector benchmark, 26 percent, and significantly more than the top-heavy VDE and XLE, at 30 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
Where to look for overbought/undervalued energy ETFs? Britt said mainstream funds, including XLE and IYE, have low price-to-earnings ratios and don't take extra risk relative to an energy benchmark.
FXN has the lowest P/E but also takes more market risk (16 percent exposure to oil and gas drilling, specifically), and that overlaps with the small-cap exposure that has hit some energy ETFs hard. RYE has a low P/E and splits the difference (13 percent exposure to oil and gas drilling) on market risk between XLE & IYE and FXN. When the rig count across North America starts heading down, as it already has, the profit margins for oil and gas drilling companies get squeezed. XLE and IYE have 3 percent exposure to oil and gas drilling. PXI, even though it has greater overall exposure to oil and gas exploration than RYE and FXN, has less exposure to the oil and gas drilling sector, specifically, at 5 percent.
Some energy ETFs can even thrive in a lower oil price environment, such as those that focus on master limited partnerships, said Neena Mishra, director of ETF Research at Zacks Investment Research. MLPs, which transport and store oil and natural gas, can still thrive in a low oil price environment because they forge long-term contracts, she said. Mishra thinks that MLPs are especially attractive for income-focused investors, since yields range between 4 percent and 6 percent and there's solid growth potential.
"MLPs shouldn't have been hit," Mishra said. "Their revenues aren't correlated with oil."
Alerian MLP ETF () is the biggest one in the niche. It yielded 6.4 percent over the trailing 12-month period and is up 5.5 percent this year. However, the expense ratio is very high, at an eye-popping 8.5 percent (0.71 percent is the management fee) due to its complex structure and tax-reporting requirements.
Nevertheless, Andrew Thrasher, an investment analyst at Financial Enhancement Group in Indianapolis, said, "Energy MLPs can be a way to not lose your shirt, since oil is like a falling knife."
Investing in energy stocks after the crash? Bottom-fishing in these stocks can be a little less scary using ETFs.
Yield-hungry investors take note: Big banks and financials are expected to become the dividend growth leader next year.
Of the 204 ETFs that launched in 2014, 92 gained less than $10 million each in assets. A look at the biggest losers.
Exchange-traded funds tied to biotech and mainland China soared, while commodity and Russia ETFs took a beating.
YPO's (Young Presidents' Organization) 22,000 top executives provide commentary about the issues affecting the economy.
CNBC 'Explains' the complicated economics of our world—from stocks and balance sheets, to trade and public policy.
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