怎么翻译这个句子？it's her 24th world title, bringing her within 2 two XXX's record 26 titles._百度知道
怎么翻译这个句子？it's her 24th world title, bringing her within 2 two XXX's record 26 titles.
请问该句子如何翻译更好？&it's her 24th world title, bringing her within 2 two XXX's record 26 titles.&感激不尽！
我有更好的答案
it's her 24th world title, bringing her within 2 XXX's record 26 titles这是她的第24个世界冠军，使得她距离XXX的26个世界冠军记录只差2个。
这是她的第24个世界冠军，把她带到了距XXX的26个世界冠军记录只差2个的位置。
本回答被网友采纳
这是她第24次蝉联世界冠军，其中有两次创两项XXX世界纪录，共荣获26项冠军。
为您推荐：
其他类似问题
换一换
回答问题，赢新手礼包
个人、企业类
违法有害信息,请在下方选择后提交
色情、暴力
我们会通过消息、邮箱等方式尽快将举报结果通知您。21世纪大学英语读写教程第二册课后句子翻译答案_百度文库
两大类热门资源免费畅读
续费一年阅读会员，立省24元！
21世纪大学英语读写教程第二册课后句子翻译答案
阅读已结束，下载本文需要
想免费下载本文？
定制HR最喜欢的简历
下载文档到电脑，同时保存到云知识，更方便管理
加入VIP
还剩1页未读，
定制HR最喜欢的简历
你可能喜欢（一） World economy The jobs crisis 失业危机 It’s coming, wha but they can make it better or worse 不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用 Illustration by Belle Mellor NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that lef but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world. 再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫， 还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业 痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠于这些计划，至少 发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。 Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do? 即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口 失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自 1930 年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易 80 年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的 恶魇再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？ Join the queue 加入失业队伍 In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes. 富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从 07 年 12 月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢 出了 440 万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了 60 万份。二月的失业率跃升至 8.1%，是 25 年来的最高数字。比 起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收 入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。 But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society. 然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失 业率尚低，但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%. 在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的 失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们有更加严格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎 缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到 2010 年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过 10%。 In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year. 发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链 条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约 5300 万人降到极端贫困线以下。 Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades. 政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另 一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以 美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自 1970 年代和 1980 年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力 市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。 Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave. 各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划 中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。 不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足 劳工薪资。 These are sensible measures, so long as they are time- for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones. 这些措施在一定时限内是合理的：因为在短期内，政府需要尽全力维持需求。只是哎呀，就业危机不大可能只在短期内存在。即便经济衰退很快结束（而且几乎不可能发生） ，引起这场危机的阴云――资金短缺和过度借贷――将在接下 来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年。更有甚者，不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员，很多昔日的就业岗位会一去 不复返。人们将被迫告别现有职位，转行进入新岗位。 A difficult dance 艰难的舞步 Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U- for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire. 在接下来的几年中，政治家们不得不做出一个 180 度的艰难政策转变：因为从长远来看，他们需要一个灵活的劳动力 市场。这意味着废除工作补贴计划，去除受保护劳工的特权，以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组。像日本这样 具有双层劳动力结构的国家，大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障，而被娇生惯养的上层员工却能享受到多重保护。 这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除。 The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fanc but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth. 这些措施可以委婉地概括为“灵活性”措施。更直白的事实是，现有工作越容易被废弃，新工作就越容易被创造。眼 下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累。随着时间推移，用在保留人员旧岗位的指出 需要削减，取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支。各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动 力市场。这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划，但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤：因为如果他们不这样做，增长将被 遏制。 However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight millions of lives for years. The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades. 然而，不论政府政策制定的多么完美，失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增。不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷 于困境。当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年。 （二） China's trade Surplus to requirements 顺差的需要 Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed? 为什么中国的出口大幅下降时，贸易顺差却在增长？ THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at anannual rate in the fourth quarter―50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on? 本周，修正后的数字显示中国在 2007 年已经超越德国成为世界第三大经济体。在去年初，中国也目标成为世界上最大 的出口国，但是年末数月出口的大幅下落意味着他们仍然排在德国之后。按照美元来计算，中国的出口额在第四季度 下降了 13%，比一年前同期少了 3%。尽管如此，中国的贸易顺差在第四季度却以全年增速上升到创纪录的 4570 亿美 元，比 2007 年同期增长了 50%。这其中到底有何玄机？ In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more―down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports). 2008 年上半年，中国的贸易顺差确实出现了缩水（见表） 。但是自那以后，尽管出口大跌，但是进口跌的更惨――到 12 月时，12 个月内下跌了 21%。进出口双双下滑由于受到全球信贷停滞影响而加剧。这是因为信用冻结导致全世界的 公司更加难以获得信用证从而保证支付。出口同样也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉价的原油和商品价格，以及原 材料和用于出口产品的部件进口（占到进口总量的 50%以上）表现疲软。 But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction―a big user of imported raw materials―has collapsed. 但是关于中国进口下降的一个更令人忧虑的原因是：中国的国内需求减小。消费支出和生产投资目前的收缩尚且适当， 但是建筑业作为进口原材料的使用大户也出现了急剧下滑。 With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%―the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009. 随着全球大部分地区陷入衰退，中国的出口今年将继续下滑。野村证券预测的下滑是 6%，为 25 年来的首次下滑。另 一方面，进口预计将增长。到年中时，政府计划的基础设施投入大幅增长将会推动原材料和机械进口。这样的话，中 国 2009 年的贸易顺差将会缩水。 The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy―and to help unwind global trade imbalances―is to bolster domestic demand. 出口剧减加上随之而来的中国南方的失业会导致政府考虑人民币贬值。但这将不仅激起美国新政府的保护主义反弹， 对生产者也帮助甚小。中国的问题是在于疲软的国外需求，而不是竞争力。支持中国经济乃至帮助全球贸易摆脱不平 衡的方法，是加强内需。 One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending. 本周的一个好消息是：随着减息和政府去除信贷限制，银行信贷总额到 12 月的 12 个月中从去年夏天的 14%猛增 19%。中国也许是最近几个月内世界大经济体中唯一出现信贷增长加速的地方。如果增速持续，它将促进内需支出。 China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards. 中国决不能再依赖出口。如果全球贸易持续下降，成为世界最大的出口国亦将无益。 （三） China's stimulus Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？ China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work 中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效 “ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham? 中国有句民谚： “众人拾柴火焰高。 ”随着世界经济陷入 70 年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。 美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值 12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝 啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占 GDP 的 3%。难道去年十一月公布的 4 亿元用于基 础设施建设的措施――相当于 GDP 的 14%――仅仅是在忽悠？ Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its deman America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle. 北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国 的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长 将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以 适应经济圈的冲击。 In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP. 然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府 实施的。 瑞银的陶旺 （音） 预计， 新的基础设施建设、 减税、 消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到 GDP3% 的 09 年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到 GDP 的 4%。 Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticisedfor focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand. 中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长 30%，铁路投 资增长了 3 倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最 立竿见影的方式。 What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch―though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort. 那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样？从去年年初开始，中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半。新 的统计数字显示，到二月，消费品价格较去年下降了 1.6%，从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩。这似乎意味着中国在提高需 求方面做的尚且不够。但其实，这并不是真正的通货紧缩。真正的通缩情况下，货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而萎 缩。去年，银行借贷增长了 24%。对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生。中国作 为世界上少有的几个国家，其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升――尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的。 China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world. 中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划，还通过让人民币在过去 12 个月内升值 18%（贸易加权考虑在内） ， 部分促进了世界货币经济增长。 The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost. 真正的问题是：中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大？到今年二月，年出口额下降远超预期，达 26%，并且可能继 续下挫。工业生产 12 个月增幅在 09 年头两个月已将至 3.8%，零售业增长放缓至 15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏 的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外，汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春（音）认为，经 济刺激方案能够实现 8%的年度经济增长。 但是政府已经明确表示， 如果经济持续疲软， 将会提供另外的财政提振方案。 Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving―all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out. 这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到 8%，但如果全球需求持续悲观，增速便难以维持。对于中国而言，出口转 内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示，将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款，使 得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则，即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。 （四）The economy's stumble 经济的绊足 Air pocket or second dip? 气囊保护还是二次沦陷？ Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9 月经济大跌，新刺激方案提上日程 AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures. Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%. Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired. Manufacturing activity cooled a bit. 根据最新统计数据，从春季开始一路高歌猛进的美国经济在 9 月大幅下跌。非农业职位减少了 26.3 万个，降幅较 8 月 增加了 6.2 万个，失业率升至 9.8%，增幅 0.1%。汽车销量在联邦“旧车换现金”计划结束后陡降。制造业略有放缓。 All this is pr overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow. Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery. But it is taking a painfully long time. “We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released. To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought. That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce. Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War―exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948. 这一切或许是如“气囊”一般的保护性反应；今年第三季度，经济总量确已开始上升，就业率最终也将随之跟进。证 券市场以及新失业津贴政策等主要指标都预示着经济的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。 “我们需要逐步恢复经济， ”巴拉克?奥 巴马在就业数据发布的第二天（10 月 3 日）承认说。雪上加霜的是，劳动统计局表示，截至今年 5 月，美国经济比预 想的进一步减少了 82.4 万个职位。这使得经济衰退造成的总失业人数达到了 800 万，占劳动力的 5.8%。如果经济停止 进一步恶化，那这将是自二战以来最严重的经济衰退――其损失超过了 1948 年所记载的 GDP 的 5%。 The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic. More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist. Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months. 更大的问题在于，就业一旦增加，它仍有可能持续疲软。根据杜克大学及《CFO Magazine》杂志（与《The Economist》 同属一家公司）财务长在 9 月的一份报告，超过半数的公司表示即使其人员编制有所回升，但在 2012 年之前不会回到 衰退前的水平。共有 43%的公司计划在未来的 12 个月中继续裁减人手。 Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy. These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year. More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance. 奥巴马先生和他的顾问们正考虑新的经济提振措施，但其规模将不及今年 7870 亿美元的刺激计划，后者于明年年底之前将不遗余力的不断向经济注入资金。可能性更大的是，他将延续刺激方案中的某些条款，如下岗职工失业津贴扩面 以及健康保险补助等。 The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire. But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th. Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat. This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”. It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day. No one said his job was easy. “旧车换现金”计划结束所带来的汽车销量下降预示了在诸如购房贷款等刺激措施期满结束后经济所将经历的退缩症 状。但是，如果继续实行此类措施，那将会为 9 月 30 日截止的本财政年带来预计高达 14 亿美元的财政赤字。选民们 对未来源源不断的财政赤字忧心忡忡，甚至是奥巴马先生的自由派支持者都在火上浇油。本周，众议院议长南希?佩洛 西表示，征收增值税应该 “提上日程” 。增值税迟早会付诸实施。然而，过早的出台此类税收将有可能阻碍经济恢复， 同时，征收新税将会为总统的劲敌们提供反击机会。大家都知道，奥巴马先生过得不容易。 （五） Signs of economic cheer 经济振奋之征兆 The sun also rises 太阳照常升起 Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed 虽然美国经济可能正从衰退中抽身而出，但是失业率仍然居高不下，庆祝理应押后。 WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected. 在早前的 2 月份，就职数周的奥巴马总统到访了印第安娜州的埃尔德哈特。总统此行笼罩着一层阴郁的气氛，因为在 此前的十二个月当中，当地的失业率达到了 18.3%，是原来的三倍还多。总统随即恳求通过大规模财政刺激方案，并 坚持说， “绝不能坐以待毙。 月 5 日，当再次来到埃尔德哈特时总统心情愉悦了一些，他表示本地工厂正在“恢复生 ”8 机。 几天之前，他已经宣布了经济已比预期有“显著好转”的消息。 ” Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart. 奥巴马的好精神是有根有据的，因为美国的衰退似乎正趋于结束。7 月 31 号的政府报告中指出，第二季度的国内生产 总值虽然收缩，但仅为年率收缩 1%。而此收缩很大程度上反映了暂时闲置工厂和工人，用存货交付订单的商业决策。 现在存货已经消耗殆尽，恢复生产势在必行。The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town. 现有的很多 7 月份数据都为之前的预期--本季度 GDP 将会增长 3%， 提供了有力支持。 制造业活跃指数提升到了 8 月份 以来最高，制造商报告说新订单增长活跃，达到两年来最佳水平；汽车销量飙升 15%，按年率计达 1,120 万辆，制造 商也正在加大生产； 现房的销售量有所提升。 就连备受折磨的埃尔德哈特也有喜讯传来： 8 月 4 号， 在 一个名为 Dometic 的游艺车部件供应商说，在本地刺激因素的帮助下，公司将在本市增添 240 个工作岗位。 Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression. 为了刺激经济复苏，奥巴马总统和他的助手们马不停蹄地投入到了 7870 亿美元的财政刺激计划中。事实上，到目前为 止这个刺激计划似乎贡献平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融体系的大规模公有资本注入，提供给金融体系的大量贷款和 贷款担保，以及今年春季的银行压力测试却发挥了更大作用。这些措施阻止了急剧下滑的资产价格、信贷退出和银行 倒闭，将经济从衰退滑向大萧条的危急关头中拉了回来。 One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit. 最振奋人心的消息莫过于在 4 月到 5 月之间 S&P/Case-Shiller （美国房价的领先衡量标准）20 大城市房价指数仅下跌 0.2%，是两年来最小幅度。稳定的房价对减少贷款拖欠会起到奇效，还可以支撑银行的资产负债表，起到恢复信贷流 动的作用。 Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest. 消息有好有坏，奥巴马总统的支持率虽然仍然算高，但是正处于下滑状态，部分原因应归咎于并无好转的就业形势（就 业是一项最为重要的单一经济基准） ，在经济好转的前提下这样的就业形势着实令人吃惊。经济学家亚瑟欧坤在十九世 纪六十年代捕捉到，失业率与经济增长有关并通常随之做出反应。但是在此次衰退中，失业率的上升幅度远比欧坤法 则的众多公式推导出的幅度大的多。 The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%. 上周公布的 GDP 修改数据可以解释一些不符之处。 修改数据显示自 2007 年底 GDP 累计下降 3.7%， 可堪比发生在 1957到 58 年自大萧条以来最严重的衰退（修改前的数据显示下降仅为 2.5%） 。即便如此，摩根大通的经济学家迈克尔?费拉 里说，按照欧坤法则预测第二季度的失业率应仅为 8.6%，而实际的失业率达到平均 9.3%。 Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children. 成因存在于几方面。扩大的失业保险收益鼓励着一些人继续寻找工作而不是彻底退出劳动大军。根据美联储消息，这 部分人口大约占失业率的 0.5%。做了财富切除手术的人们更可能选择找工作而不是退休或回家带孩子。 And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls. Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch. Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery. Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins. Robert Hall of Stanford University, who heads the academic committee that dates recessions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during recessions: “When productivity rises, the law fails. Though I was a great fan of Okun’s, I’m afraid his law is obsolete.” 各公司对于削减工资表现得异乎寻常地敏捷。因为信贷紧缩的缘故，一些公司可能更为仔细的节约现金，另一些可能 只是对最终到来的经济恢复更加悲观。无论是什么原因，得到的结果之一就是生产率上升的同时利润率下降。斯坦福 大学的罗伯特?霍尔是判断经济衰退起始期的学术委员会委员长，他表示欧坤是在经济衰退中通常生产率降低的时代创 造出欧坤法则的， “当生产率上升，法则失效。尽管作为一个曾经狂热的欧坤迷，我还是得说他的法则已经过时了。 ” The difference with Europe is especially striking. In the euro zone GDP has fallen further than in America but unemployment has risen less (see chart). Employers are slower to sack workers than in America, partly thanks to government subsidies that encourage them to shorten working hours instead (see article). This means that European unemployment will probably be slow to fall once GDP recovers. 美国与欧洲的差距尤为显著。在欧元区 GDP 下降幅度比美国要大但是失业率的上升却不及美国（如图） 。欧洲雇主们 不像美国雇主们那样急于解雇员工，这应部分归功于政府补助，用以鼓励他们用缩短劳动时间来取代解雇员工的做法 （见文章） 。这就意味着一旦 GDP 恢复，欧洲失业率将很可能缓慢回落。 But it looks as if it will be slow to come down in America as well. Firms are unlikely to do much hiring until growth seems durable, and so far it does not. Replenishing inventory will be a temporary fillip without an increase in consumer demand. Car sales have been strong in great part because of the federal cash-for-clunkers programme, which allows Americans to get up to $4,500 for their old car when they exchange it for a new one. The programme was supposed to run until November 1st but its $1 billion was snapped up within days of its start on July 24th. The House of Representatives has voted for an extra $2 billion and at mid-week the Senate was expected to do likewise. But cars bought now may mean fewer cars bought later. 然而美国失业率似乎也将缓慢回落。企业在出现稳定增长之前不会大量雇佣人员，而到目前为止还未看到稳定增长迹 象。补充商品存货只是一个短暂刺激，消费需求不会因此增长。联邦政府的“旧车换现金”计划是给予通过以旧换新 方式购买新车的消费者拿到最多 4500 美元的补助，因此美国汽车销售大幅度增长。原本支持该计划进行到 11 月 1 号 为止的 10 亿资金在 7 月 24 号活动开始之后的几天之内就耗尽了。 众议院已经投票通过了为该计划追加 20 亿美元的决 议，此议案预计本周三也将通过参议院审议。但是现阶段踊跃的汽车销售意味着未来阶段汽车销量将会少之又少。 If growth peters out again later this year, it will dash the expectations Mr Obama has done so much to raise by touting his stimulus. Dick Moore, Elkhart’s mayor, has been so enthusiastic about federal support that some county officials harrumph that he sleeps in Obama pyjamas. Though the president obligingly promised $39m for a local unit of Navistar to make electric trucks, it will take time for the firm to scale up production and hire workers. Meanwhile, Dorinda Heiden-Guss, who heads thecounty’s economic-development group, has been barraged with requests from companies seeking incentives. But many of them do so without a semblance of a business plan. 如果在今年晚些时候经济再次逐渐停止增长，人们对未来预期的信心就会烟消云散。这信心是靠着奥巴马总统兜售他 的经济刺激计划辛辛苦苦建立起来的。埃尔得哈特市长迪克?摩尔对联邦资助表现地甚为积极致使一些本市官员不耻地 说他和奥巴马同穿一条裤子。虽然总统亲切地作出了给名为纳威斯达的地方单位拨款 3900 万美元的保证，用以制造电 动卡车，但是进行大规模生产和雇佣员工仍需要很多时间。与此同时，本市经济发展组组长 Dorinda Heiden-Guss 还在 经受来自各公司要求寻找经济刺激点的枪林弹雨，可是它们中的许多公司就连装装样子的企业计划都没有。 Another caveat: all numbers are subject to revision, perhaps years later. Even the Depression is getting worse. According to the latest revisions, GDP fell 26.7% between 1929 and 1933: the pre-revision figure was a mere 26.6%. Today’s green shoots could still be revised away. 另一个警告：所有数字已修改数字为准，而数字可能在几年以后才会修改，即使是大萧条时期也是如此，数字越改越 差。根据最新的数据显示在 1929 到 1933 年间 GDP 下滑 26.7%，在此之前的修改数字仅为 26.7%。今日的经济增长春 芽有朝一日也可能被修剪得所剩无几。 （六） China’s economy 中国经济 Slower boat from China “中国号”减速 Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU From Economist.com Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll 由于世界经济不景气的影响，中国经济增速放缓 Shutterstock PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West. It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys. 也许这不值得大惊小怪。周一（10 月 20 日）中国国家统计局发布第三季度经济数据：相对去年同期增长 9％。以欧美 标准来说，这已经非常令人满意了，但却比上一季度的 10.1％低了不少（上一季度相对于更前的一个季度的经济增速 已经降低了） 。第三季度的经济增长率是中国自 2003 年年初以来的最低值。而在此前中国经济能够完全与西方“脱钩” 的希望消失的氛围中，普遍预计中国经济增速会有一个更温和的下降。现在依照最近的每日数据来重新评估中国的经 济享有多大的独立性显得非常有必要了。 It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.现在越来越难说中国是否能相对地不受全球金融危机的影响。单是这个月，两个大型公司，玩具制造商合俊集团和钢 铁制造商中国金属就已经进入破产清算程序。除了这些极少数有公开消息倒闭的公司外，还有成千上万的公司无声无 息地消失了。今年早些时候，中国南方遭受了“劳动荒” ，好多鞋厂无法完成靴子和其它需要众多劳动力和原料的订单。 所有这些情况，现在已经完全颠倒过来了：这里拥有过剩的劳动力但却缺乏订单，而且没有一点复苏的迹象。 One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world. The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report. In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests. This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant. The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders. A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices. This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then. 在中国贸易日历上最重大的事件之一就是久负盛名的广交会。 在这里有着全国各地的制造商和来自世界各地的采购商。 秋季广交会的第一部分已于 10 月 19 日结束，但是几乎没有什么好消息值得报道。在好的年份，广州的酒店会双倍收 费甚至客满拒入。但这次，酒店费用依然很高但是却有大量空闲。虽然广交会上不至于门庭冷落，但是以通常标准来 看，在欧美重要客户缺席的情况下，人流不算拥挤。许多参展商抱怨订单太少。而在一年前这些参展商还由于大宗商 品价格的上升而要求提高在订货合同里加上价格自动调整条款。而今年，一位来自阿曼的建筑公司的客户表示他从价 格下跌中获利不少，而且他还补充说，价格下跌的速度要比其之前上升的速度快得多。 China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone. There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending. Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and prop production of steel has declined too. A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics. 然而中国经济增速放缓不能仅将责任归咎于出口问题。 渣打银行的 Stephen Green 表示， 中国经济到处都出现警报信号， 诸如投资、消费（尽管九月份名义零售额 9 月份增长 23％）和政府开支。汽车、服装、机票和房地产的销售都在下降， 钢铁生产量同样也在下降。这些仅有一小部分原因归咎于奥运的原因而关闭了一些工厂。 If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year―a different era, in hindsight―to prevent overheating. In this, there is some hope. China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation is declining. The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years. China’s government is in a strong financial position. Savings rates for the Chinese are high. 如果有什么值得乐观的话，那就是经济增长放缓部分的原因是由于中国政府自己去年（现在看来，那是一个完全不同 时代）努力阻止经济过热的结果。基于此，现在仍有希望。由于一些不良贷款增加以及一些城市银行被怀疑存在问题， 中国的金融状况不是非常完美，但是仍有足够的空间来放松财政和货币政策。大型国有银行看来状态非常好，由于在 过去两年里贷款上限已经被非常严格地执行了，所以他们的流动性非常充足。中国政府的财政状况非常好。中国人民 的储蓄率非常高。 As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance―if not expansion―of credit, and domestic growth in consumption. Rumours of the potential government response are widespread. Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed. Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property. Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected. All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately. Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset. Ifthe global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity. 因此，中国积极的财政政策的实施，即便不算扩张的也是持续的信贷投放和国内消费的增长仍有非常大的空间。最近， 有关中国政府可能会有举措的传言四起。去年被废除的出口指标退税可能会被恢复。而且房地产交易契税也正在被考 虑取消。政府还可能增大在用水和交通项目上的开支。这些都会直接或者间接地刺激需求。这些措施都将减缓世界经 济下降带来的压力，但是缓和不等于抵消。不能说全球经济动荡啥作用也没有，至少它揭示了世界最快经济体和发达 国家繁荣兴盛的共同关系。 （七） Emerging markets All fall down 都跌了 Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots 发展中国家中的公司挣扎着逃命 STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect. Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year. On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended. 股市泡沫常常带来真正的经济或公司经营改进，接踵而来的是大规模过高估计其效果。新兴市场的股市投资者肯定在 疑问着他们是否又被骗入,因为发展中国家原来就是疑团。这些国家的股市今年已经下跌近一半。10 月 6 日，新兴市场 的股价下跌创了 20 年来的最大跌幅，导致了人们太熟悉的混乱场面，跟着来到是强制性停止活动，例如在一些交易所 停止了交易。 For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles. How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity pricessap export earnings and capital flows dry up. Even sound economies maystill be dragged down. As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”. 对于那些看好的投资人来讲，与以前各次循环相比，此次新兴经济一个吸引人地方在于他们以更好的公共债务及收 支平衡作为起始。当大宗商品价格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影响，且资本流处于枯竭，这些国家的那些状况有强劲目 前正受到考验。即使那些最健康的经济也可能被拉下水。大摩的经济学家 Stephen Jen 指出，在危机中“好的国家会发 生坏事情” 。 Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea―thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved. Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms. Indeed, these might even be less riskythan their homelands’ governments. And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets. 股票投资人的兴高采烈也反映了更新颖的看法―新兴市场里的公司质量已经改善了。相当普遍的看法是，这些公司已 经不是老式那种拥有者及会计制度模糊不清的国际集团，替代而来的是新一代大型，运营良好，世界范围中有竞争力 的“超大型”公司。真的，这些公司的风险可能比他们所在国的政府都少。正如荷兰经济不会影响皇家壳牌石油公司 的股价一样，或是英国经济与 Vodafone 并不紧连，希望是这些公司可能已经超越了其国内市场。 Some of the claims were over the top. In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion (ten times today’slevel). But there was substance too, exemplified by thewave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata. 有些叫法有些太过头。在 2007 年月，由俄国政府控制的能源公司 Gazprom 宣布了一个恶魔式的预测，估计其市值将达 到一万亿美金（是目前市值的 10 倍） 。但是这些公司也有行动，在信贷紧缩前不断出价收购西方公司，例如巴西的矿 业公司 Vale 出手上千亿美金收购 Xstrata 就是实例。 EPAJust like the old days 跟过去一样 Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations. They may have been more overvalued to startwith. Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm. The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable. Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies―twice the share in developed markets―soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers. Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there. And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index. Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be less well run. 那么为什么多数新兴股市下跌幅度超过西方国家的股市跌幅，特别是上个月的下跌呢？这里有些可信的基本解释。这 些新兴股市开始时可能就是估值过高了。就是当他们暴跌后，其本益比才与发达国家的本益比接近，而不是历史上常 见的削价出售。多数这些市场的指数组成也使得这些市场更加不堪一击。在 FTSE 新兴市场指数中，几乎五分之二的 收益是高度紧跟经济循环的能源或基本原材料公司，这是发达市场指数中的两倍。所以收益预测下降比发达市场的要 快。中国大陆在多数这些指数中的表现不足（而中国大陆在近几周来相对强劲） ，这是基于外国人很难在那里进行投资 的观点。在 FTSE 新兴市场指数中，前 20 家公司占了超过四分之一的地位。虽然这比发达经济多了许多，但仍剩下很 多运营不如他们的很多较小公司。 As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry. Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments. This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents. Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Russia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers. 与指数组成及价值受到扭曲一样，与以前的危机相同，残酷的现实是投资人并没有细细选择。多数“超大型”公司已 经受到的惩罚要比其富裕国家同类行业公司要重得多。信贷违约掉期合同，即防止破产的保险合同，表明大型新兴市 场公司的贷款费用以及其所在国政府的贷款费用已经大幅上升。尽管在事实上，这些新兴市场制造业公司总体来讲， 与其政府一样，债务水平都比其西方同类的要低。新兴市场的银行股价，除了几个例外情况外，例如俄国，均处于合 理状态，但是也与其西方同行一起暴跌。 There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it. That couldpresent a buying opportunity. But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. 虽然新兴经济已经有了结构性改善，但是目前市场中并没有反映这些。这就给出了买入机会。但是如果资本长期处于 短缺状态，大型公司挣扎着转贷其外债，投资人的大胆举动可能会变成自圆其说了。 （八） There is hope 希望仍在 AfricaThere is hope Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition Despite the persistence of Africa ’ s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive 天灾人祸不断 局势有望好转 UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising. 经过了持续几周的全球动乱，致力于推动非洲发展的改革者们终于可以略展笑颜。政治，经济上 40 多年的停滞不前曾 使非洲 8 亿的人民的人们陷入贫穷和黑暗，但最近 5 年来，48 个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家正以 5%的总体速率飞速发展。 如果他们能使这一速率维持甚至略有提高，非洲将有望摆脱贫困。现今日用品价格有望下调，世界市场将必然走向萎 缩，相应地，西方的援助也会趋于稳定，甚至有所下降。尽管与其他地方相比，非洲地区相对独立于全球经济，却也 难免殃及池鱼。 “无望的陆地”本报从前曾这样过于苛刻地描述过这片土地。但也许，现实并非如此糟糕，以至于会让 许多持悲观态度的人会感到不解，并且不时显现的复苏迹象也不只是日用品价格飙升所带来的表面繁荣，这一切昭示 着一个切切实实的开端。尽管不良政权和多变气候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起 A long way to go 长路漫漫 Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South K now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots―for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda―must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana. 悲观主义者仍可言之凿凿。过往的日子里，特别是日用品价格飙升之际，经济增长多是昙花一现。但一旦价格回落， 这种涨势则不堪一击。然而，非洲近来为数不多的成功例子则与先前灾难历史形成鲜明对比。加纳，是一个人们乐于 引用的希望之地，但是早在 1957 年这个国家宣布独立之时，它的富足程度就可比南韩，而现今，尽管近期经济局势略 有反弹，但同比于韩国，国民人均财富仍缩水了 30 倍。另外几个国家的所谓“希望” ，例如莫桑比克，卢旺达，乌干 达，也只是与过往苦难形成的鲜明对比。实际上，唯一的一个保有政治经济上强有力持续增长的国家是博茨瓦纳。 Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries―by far the highest proportion in any continent―are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance. 很多基本指标仍不容乐观。非洲的人均寿命仍在下降，很大一部分归因于艾滋病，这一疾病 60%的受害者都来自非洲。 一份最新的世界银行报表对于非洲的增长势头能否持续持谨慎态度。报表显示，高于平均速度的大部分增长只是得益于 8 个撒哈拉以南的产油国由于石油产出所带来的国民收入。三分之一的非洲国家（目前为止占所有大洲的最高比例） 陷于内战和暴动的漩涡。两个最突出的例子，苏丹和刚果，被长年的战乱和暴政摧毁。津巴布韦，这个曾被称为南非 宝石的地方，尽管最近达成一项致力于建立国家统一政府的协定，如今却也成了一场噩梦。这份世界银行的报表对于 非洲标准的政府管理表示出悲观态度。 Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem a and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty. 但也许更令人担忧的是，大约在去年，非洲大陆的三个巨头都遭遇了严重倒退。自从 1999 年这个国家转变为文官统治 以来，尼日利亚的大选遭遇了最严重的舞弊。肯尼亚，作为东非的轴心，在一次富有争议的选举之后经历了种族迫害。 在各个方面作为撒哈拉以南领军国家的南非，国民生产总值占据整个 GDP 的三分之一，理应为其他非洲国家树立包容 榜样，其政府却接近独裁的边缘。最近反对外国黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底层南非人民仍然面对着重重 贫困。 All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limi at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement. 与此同时，改革势头也更加明朗。政治自由尽管有待完善，却比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲国家现在已经对总 统任期加以限制。至少 14 位领导人被迫下野。多党制尽管情势紧张，却也普及更广。政治义务和选择权的观念更加深 入人心。由于互联网的部分原因，媒体变得更加活跃。由 Mo Ibrahim（出生于苏丹的电信巨头）资助设立的最新的非 洲行政指数，表明了一种普遍的进步。 The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus. 非洲社会主义（不靠谱的第三种途径）红字下的国家统治假设已被证明是一堆垃圾。大多数地方领导人相信，尽管现 在看起来局势不定，非洲繁荣离不开世界经济。手机革命大大帮助了非洲人民，特别是贫困的农民和商人。银行系统 正处于现代化，信贷业务也对新兴的中产阶级更加开放。世界各地商人的投资力度也不断加强，尤其是对治理较好的 非洲国家。即使是那些自然资源匮乏的国家增长速度也在加快。中国进军非洲市场，总的来说，利大于弊。 Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences. 同样由世行联合发起的另一项报告，则对“华盛顿共识”颇有微词， “共识”确信，纯粹的自由市场是一剂万能药，非 洲应当实行贸易开放，加强财政紧缩，清偿国家。然而针对非洲国家的不同情况，不能一以概之，比如，富裕国家倾 向于提供具有时限的贸易优先权。 Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸着石头过河 Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by droppingAmerican tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings―in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma. 其他的方法也会带来裨益。美洲的“非洲成长与机会 2000 年法案” ，通过下调美洲关税刺激了非洲出口。另一个方案 是“采掘行业透明度行动计划” ，这是一项已有 12 个非洲国家参与的自愿履行的规则，政府与国外公司将公开交易， 与富产矿产的刚果形成鲜明对比（该国可笑地宣称 2006 年的矿产收入只有$86,000。对于轻工业国家，国家储备基金的 建立也不失为一个好主意。对于农业方面，将土地定位个人名下也是一个好办法。在一片土地共有的大陆上，似乎很 难成事。现实总是会击败教条。 So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet. 所以非洲现在有一个摆脱贫困陷阱的难得机会。即使对于一个诚信高效的政府，这一切仍是不易，更不要说，大多数 政府并非如此。算上气候，疾病，文盲，种族分化种种不利，政府腐败仍是最大的弊端。但总体的消息还是令人鼓舞。 而那些富裕的国家也有他们的烦恼，但他们绝不会放弃帮助贫困国家自力更生的努力。 （九） The credit crunch 信贷危机 Saving the system 拯救系统 Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldness is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe 最后还有一线希望，为避免一场全球经济大灾难发生，还需要更大胆 CONFIDENCE is everything in finance. Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this essential ingredient. In America Congress dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan. In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere. This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap. 对金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周为止，那些努力应对信贷危机的政要们在重建信心这一基本因素上作为甚少。在 美国，国会犹豫不决地通过了布什政府 7000 亿美元的救市计划。在欧洲，政府间随意地玩着以邻为壑的政治游戏，各 国纷纷对本国存款进行担保，没有顾及这样会动摇其他国家的银行。然而，还是让人们看到了第一束希望的曙光―― 全球将一致行动弥合信心裂缝。 One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and (officially a coincidence) the People’s Bank of China. Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks. But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain. The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers. More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years. 一个明确的信号是 10 月 8 日全球主要央行空前地联合降息，其中包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行（英格兰银行）和中国央行（官方称是巧合） 。许多欧洲大陆国 家也开始计划调整银行资本结构。但最令人惊骇的进展发生在美国和英 国。美联储将对其短期内对银行提供的贷款规模扩大到 9000 亿美元，为原来的两倍，并宣布将直接从企业购买未担保 的商业票据。更令人惊讶的是，迄今为止不知所措到极点的戈登?布朗政府采取了应对危机的第一个系统的计划，不仅 向银行提供资本和 短期贷款，还对三年内到期的新债进行担保。 This is certainly progres