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基于统计降尺度模型预测鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水变化趋势Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics for the Poyang Lake Basin Based on Statistical Downscaling Model
DOI: , PP. 511-521
Keywords: 气候变化，CMIP5，统计降尺度，极值降水，预测分析，鄱阳湖流域Climate Change,,,,,
本文以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象，研究变化环境下极端气候事件的时空分布及演变规律。利用流域内13个代表站点年的逐日降水量资料，选用BCC-CSM1.1全球气候模式和三种(高、中、低)温室气体典型浓度路径排放情景，并与SDSM统计降尺度模型耦合，分析预测未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性指标的变化趋势。得出以下主要结论：进行偏差校正后的SDSM统计降尺度模型可应用于未来极值降水指标的计算；鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性主要呈增加趋势；流域有降水集中化的趋势，这对于流域防洪较为不利，且未来可能面临较大的“旱涝急转”的风险。As climate change will certainly result in strong response from extreme climatic events, investi-gating the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution laws of extreme climatic events is of great importance. Based on the daily precipitation from 1961 to 2005 from thirteen meteorological sta-tions within the Poyang Lake basin, daily precipitation for future period of
is simulated using the SDSM statistical downscaling model. Coupling a BCC-CSM1.1 GCM with three representa-tive concentration pathways (RCPs), the changing characteristics of magnitude, intensity and per-sistence of extreme precipitation are studied by means of several extreme precipitation indices. A bias correction procedure should be applied to the SDSM simulated historical precipitation before it can be used to simulate future precipitation. The extreme precipitation magnitude and intensity, as well as the persistence all show significantly increasing trends. Upgrading flood mitigation dif-ficulties due to a concentration tendency of precipitation, as well as the increasing potential of abrupt alternation between flood and drought will threaten the water resources security of the Poyang Lake basin.
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Live SupportAsk us anything降水偏多江西鄱阳湖水面较历史同期明显偏大
中国气象报记者邓敏佳报道近日，记者从江西省气象科学研究所获悉，受前期降水偏多影响，鄱阳湖水面较历史同期明显偏大。根据日卫星资料和遥感监测显示，鄱阳湖主体及附近水域面积为2201平方公里，较历史同期偏大711平方公里（历史同期平均值为1490平方公里）。
从今年11月份开始，江西省出现连续阴雨天气过程，全省降水量为303.5毫米，较历史同期偏多2.1倍（多年平均为95.9毫米）。
据江西省气象科学研究所副所长黄淑娥介绍，鄱阳湖水面的明显增大对于迁徙到此越冬的候鸟带来了一定的影响。以往，由于鄱阳湖冬季处于枯水期，大量草滩裸露，湖内有丰富的鱼虾供候鸟觅食，使得这里成为候鸟的聚集地。而今年鄱阳湖水面明显增大，导致裸露草滩减少，水位增加明显，不利于鱼虾的生长和候鸟的觅食。目前，江西省鄱阳湖渔政部门已经采取了人工投喂饵料的措施，以保护在此越冬的候鸟。
[责任编辑:5月来长江中下游降水偏多三成 鄱阳湖水体面积超98年|鄱阳湖|面积|水体_天气预报_新浪网
5月来长江中下游降水偏多三成 鄱阳湖水体面积超98年
　　国家气候中心消息 5月1日至6月16日，长江中下游6省1市（苏浙沪皖湘赣鄂）平均降水量335.8毫米，较常年同期偏多30%，为1961年以来历史同期第三多，超过1998年同期。与常年同期相比，江淮东部、江南中东部、华南西北部以及贵州南部、重庆南部、四川南部、云南西北部等地降水量偏多两成至1倍。十大流域平均降水量均较常年同期偏多，其中辽河流域偏多71.2%、松花江流域偏多56.3%，东南诸河、长江流域偏多2～3成。
　　监测显示，5月以来，长江中下游降雨偏多。
　　5月以来，全国共出现9次大范围强降水天气过程（5月6次，6月以来3次），其中5月6-10日强降水过程范围最大，5月19-21日强降水过程雨量大，广东信宜过程降水量达456.5毫米。6月14-16日，南方部分地区降雨过程持续，湖南株洲，广西融水、柳州、罗城，广东龙门等地过程降水量在200毫米以上。
　　5月以来，南方共经历9次强降雨过程。图表展示了历次降雨过程暴雨和大暴雨覆盖的面积。
　　频繁的强降水天气造成广西南宁和柳州、湖北武汉、湖南株洲、贵州锦屏等多地先后出现严重内涝，部分街道被淹，交通和人们正常生活受到严重影响；南方部分地区江河水位普遍上涨，太湖、广西柳江和桂江、湖南湘江上中游、贵州沅江支流、江西赣江支流、浙江瓯江支流、福建富屯溪等出现超警戒水位，其中湘江支流涓水、柳江二级支流环江发生超历史洪水；贵州锦屏、江西宜春和黎川、浙江临安、安徽岳西等地出现山洪、泥石流和山体滑坡等地质灾害，公路多处塌方。
　　受降雨偏多影响，鄱阳湖水体明显偏大。
　　6月14日气象卫星监测显示，与近十年同期相比，当前洞庭湖、鄱阳湖水体面积明显偏大，分别偏大约44.5%、20.6%。与1998年同期相比，洞庭湖水体面积略偏大（约2.6%），鄱阳湖明显偏大（约36.6%）。2014鄱阳湖水资源安全形势及对策_图文_百度文库
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