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Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (EDT) Wednesday, September 16, 2015
USDL-15-1786
Technical information: (202) 691-7000
Reed.Steve@bls.gov
www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact:
(202) 691-5902
PressOffice@bls.gov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ? AUGUST 2015
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1
percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index
rose 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The gasoline index declined sharply in August and was the main cause of
the seasonally adjusted all items decrease. Other energy indexes were
mixed, with the fuel oil index continuing to decline but the indexes for
electricity and natural gas increasing in August. The food index rose 0.2
percent in August, with the indexes for eggs and for fruits and vegetables
rising notably.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in
August, the same increase as in July. The index for shelter rose, as did
the indexes for apparel, tobacco, and alcoholic beverages. However the
index for airline fares declined sharply, and the indexes for household
furnishings and operations, recreation, and used cars and trucks also
decreased in August, with the indexes for new vehicles and medical care
unchanged.
The all items index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August,
the same increase as for the 12 months ending July. The 12-month change
in the index for all items less food and energy also remained the same,
at 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index rose 1.6
percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 15.0
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
All items..................
Food......................
Food at home.............
Food away from home (1)..
Energy....................
Energy commodities.......
Gasoline (all types)....
Fuel oil (1)............
Energy services..........
Electricity.............
Utility (piped) gas
service..............
All items less food and
energy.................
Commodities less food and
energy commodities....
New vehicles............
Used cars and trucks....
Apparel.................
Medical care commodities
Services less energy
services..............
Shelter.................
Transportation services
Medical care services...
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for August 2015
The food index increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as in
July. The index for food at home advanced 0.3 percent, also the same
increase as the prior month. Major grocery store food group indexes were
mixed in August. The largest increase was the fruits and vegetables index,
which rose 1.5 percent with both fresh fruits and fresh vegetables posting
their largest increases of the year. The index for meats, poultry, fish,
and eggs also increased, rising 0.5 percent. The indexes for beef,
poultry, and pork all declined, but the eggs index rose 7.7 percent and
is now up 35.3 percent over the past year. The index for nonalcoholic
beverages rose for the third month in a row, increasing 0.1 percent. The
other three groups all turned down in August after rising in July. The
index for dairy and related products fell 0.3 percent, the index for
other food at home declined 0.2 percent, and the cereals and bakery
products index decreased 0.1 percent. The index for food at home has risen
0.8 percent over the
past 12 months, with only the dairy group showing a
decline over that span. The index for food away from home, which was
unchanged in July, increased 0.2 percent in August and has risen 2.7
percent over the past 12 months.
The energy index fell 2.0 percent in August after rising in five of the
past 6 months. The gasoline index, which had risen 3 months in a row, fell
4.1 percent in August. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices
declined 5.4 percent in August.) The fuel oil index also declined,
falling 8.1 percent, its third straight decrease. The index for natural
gas rose, however, increasing 1.2 percent after a 1.4 percent decline in
July. The electricity index also turned up, rising 0.3 percent in August
after declining in July. All the major energy components have declined
over the past 12 months. The electricity index has fallen 0.6 percent,
while the others have d the fuel oil index has
decreased 34.6 percent, the index for gasoline has declined 23.3 percent,
and the index for natural gas has fallen 11.5 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in
August, as it did in July. The shelter index was the main source of the
it rose 0.2 percent in August following a 0.4 percent increase
in July. The rent index rose 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as
in July, while the index for owners' equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent.
The index for lodging away from home, however, turned down in August,
falling 0.6 percent after a 2.5 percent increase the prior month. The
apparel index increased 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as last
month. The tobacco index also rose in August, increasing 0.5 percent, and
the index for alcoholic beverages advanced 0.1 percent. The medical care
index was unchanged in August, with the indexes for hospital services and
prescription drugs rising but the indexes for physicians' services and
nonprescription drugs declining. The new vehicles index was unchanged in
August, as was the index for personal care. Several indexes declined in
The index for airline fares fell 3.1 percent after decreasing 5.6 percent
in July. The index for used cars and trucks decreased 0.4 percent, its
fourth decline in a row. The index for household furnishings and
operations declined 0.3 percent, and the recreation index fell 0.1
The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.8 percent over
the past 12 the 12-month change has been 1.8 percent in five of
the last 6 months. The indexes for shelter, medical care, new vehicles,
recreation, and tobacco are among the indexes that have increased over
the past year. In contrast, the indexes for airline fares, apparel, used
cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations have all
declined over the last 12 months.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2
percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.316
(). For the month, the index declined 0.1 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) decreased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level
of 233.366 (). For the month, the index declined 0.2 percent
prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
decreased 0.1 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index
declined 0.2 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note
that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
The Consumer Price Index for September 2015 is scheduled to be released
on Thursday, October 15, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request.
Voice phone:
202-691-5200, Federal Relay
1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:
(1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W),
which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that
comprise approximately 28 percent of the total population and (2) the
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban
Consumers (C-CPI-U), which covers approximately 89 percent of the total
population and includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical worker
households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical
workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and
retirees and others not in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors? and dentists? services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices
are collected each month in 87 urban areas across the country from about
6,000 housing units and approximately 24,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month
in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other
areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits
or telephone calls of the Bureau?s trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period.
For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued
in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the
CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase
of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as
116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on
(202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the
1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U.
These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent
for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index.
This means that if we
repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same
methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95%
of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month percentage
change based on all retail prices.
For example, for a 1-month change of
0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95
percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail
prices would fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest data,
including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see
"Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index,
January-December 2013."
These data are available on the CPI home page
(www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link:
www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2014.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed
as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index
point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its
base period while percent changes are not.
The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual
rates and are computed according to the standard formula for compound
growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would be if
the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
Less previous index
Equals index point change
Percent Change
Index point difference
Divided by the previous index
Results multiplied by one hundred
Equals percent change
A Note on the Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Introduction
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally
adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal
factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Method. These
factors are updated each January, and the new factors are used to revise
the previous five years of seasonally adjusted data. For more information
on data revisions and exceptions to the usual revision schedule, please
see the Fact Sheet on Seasonal Adjustment
(www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisaqanda.htm) and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment
Methodological Changes (www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiseastimeline.htm).
How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes
that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude
every year?such as price movements resulting from changing climatic
conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the
time of year.The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers
concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also
used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining
contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal
variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in
escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal
Adjustment for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp
movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change.
Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment is a process by which the
distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from
the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal
factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then
applied to the unadjusted data.
2015 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2015, BLS adjusted 33
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including
selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles.
For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset
the effects of events such as the response in crude oil markets to the
worldwide economic downturn in 2008.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average All items index
levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original
release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors
for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last five years of
data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last five years of data are
considered to be final and not subject to revision. In January 2015,
revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for
were calculated and published. For directly adjusted series, the seasonal
factors for 2014 will be applied to data for 2015 to produce the
seasonally adjusted 2015 indexes.
Determining Seasonal Status
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon
certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists
determine whether a series should change its status: from "not seasonally
adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted," or vice versa. If any of the 82
components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal
adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted,
not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the
dependent series for the last five years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes before that period will not be changed. Thirty-two of the 82
components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally
adjusted for 2015.
Contact Information
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and
Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Christopher Graci, Justin
Yarros, or Samuel An at (202) 691-6968 or by e-mail at
Graci.Christopher@bls.gov, Yarros.Justin@bls.gov or An.Samuel@bls.gov.
If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information
staff at (202) 691-7000.
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