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Help&Slate&with&its&new&series&on&the&China&gold&rush.
By&Henry&Blodget
Posted&Thursday,&Jan.&20,&2005,&at&4:22&AM&PT&
There's&gold&in&them&hills!&And&real&estate!&And&junk&bonds!&And&cell&phones!&And&Internet&cafes!&And&a&billion&Chinese&shoppers!&
Every&age&has&its&gold&rush.&The&Dutch&went&mad&for&tulip&bulbs&in&the&17th&century.&A&hundred&years&later,&canals&were&all&the&rage.&In&the&1840s,&gold.&In&the&1860s,&railroads.&In&the&early&20th&century,&phones,&radio,&cars,&and&planes.&In&the&1980s,&Wall&Street.&In&the&1990s,&the&Internet.&And,&now,&in&the&2000s&…&China.
Pick&up&a&newspaper&and&you'll&see&a&story&about&the&latest&American&company&plotting&its&assault&on&&the&greatest&untapped&market&on&earth.&&Search&Amazon,&and&your&screen&will&fill&with&books&offering&101&tips&for&making&a&killing&in&the&PRC.&Say&&China&&to&executives&and&investors,&and&they'll&casually&mention&their&last&trip&to&Beijing.&The&boom&is&on,&and&everyone&wants&in.
Of&course,&even&as&we&all&feel&a&sudden&desire&to&enroll&in&Mandarin&classes,&we&should&remember&that&the&current&China&frenzy&has&only&progressed&to&the&second&of&five&phases&that&define&most&gold&rushes.&To&wit:
1.&Spark:&A&few&early&birds&strike&it&rich—and&get&themselves&on&the&cover&of&Fortune.
2.&Boom:&The&rest&of&us&drool&with&envy&and&rush&to&cash&in.&The&torrent&of&inflowing&capital&upsets&the&supply/demand&equilibrium&and&drives&prices&to&the&moon,&making&the&early&birds&even&richer.&This&is&where&China&is&now.
3.&Bust:&The&level&of&interest&(capital)&exceeds&the&level&of&opportunity&(places&to&put&it).&Returns&plummet,&prices&collapse,&and&herds&of&recent&arrivals&and&Kool-Aid&drinkers&lose&their&shirts.
4.&Mature&growth:&Savvy,&patient&contrarians&sift&through&the&wreckage,&buying&assets&from&the&disillusioned&for&pennies&on&the&dollar.&This,&in&turn,&becomes&the&most&profitable,&if&least&glamorous,&phase.&It's&the&one&that&the&Internet&boom&has&just&entered.
5.&Decay:&See&Polaroid,&Xerox,&and&the&British&Empire.
Developing&countries&tend&to&experience&multiple&gold&rushes,&as&the&pendulum&of&socio-politico-economic&reform&swings&forward,&swings&back&(e.g.,&Russia),&and&then&swings&forward&again.&Today's&China&boom&is&only&the&latest&in&the&country's&history,&and&it&probably&won't&be&the&last.
But&in&China's&case,&the&long-term&optimism&seems&particularly&well-founded.&Given&the&country's&rate&of&progress,&it&is&hard&to&imagine&China&not&becoming&the&leading&economic&superpower&over&the&next&50&to&100&years.&The&intermediate&steps,&however,&will&likely&be&incredibly&complex&and&volatile,&especially&for&Westerners.&China's&combination&of&cultures,&languages,&military&power,&income&disparity,&one-party&rule,&legal&and&regulatory&systems,&infrastructure,&and,&simply,&vastness,&will&confound&many.
No&matter&what&happens,&the&boom&will&produce&great&stories.&Slate&has&asked&me&to&tell&some&of&them.&Specifically,&I&have&been&asked&to&focus&on&the&stampede&of&American&executives,&companies,&journalists,&consultants,&and&investors&currently&elbowing&each&other&out&of&the&way&to&snag&first-class&seats&to&Beijing.&
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Before&I&begin,&a&confession:&Thanks&to&a&previous&life&as&a&Wall&Street&Internet&analyst,&I&know&a&bit&about&business&and&a&bit&about&gold&rushes.&Unfortunately,&I&don't&know&much&about&China:
Language.&To&say&I&don't&speak&a&word&of&Chinese&would&be&an&overstatement,&but&only&just.&I&can&say&&hello&&in&one&Chinese&language&(I&think),&but&I&don't&know&which&one.&I&am&also&familiar&with&a&refrain&sung&on&the&PBS&Kids&show&Sagwa,&the&Chinese&Siamese&Cat,&which,&to&my&ears,&sounds&like&&Hop&on&Yo.&&I&am&told&it&means&&You're&my&best&friend.&
History.&I&took&a&class&in&high&school&called&&Changing&China.&&It&covered&the&few&thousand&years&through&Deng.&I&remember&discussing&a&picture&of&Deng&swimming&in&a&river&(the&Yangtze?).&The&picture&had&great&significance,&apparently,&because&of&a&famous&earlier&photo&of&Mao&doing&the&same&thing.
Geography.&I&would&probably&be&able&to&find&Beijing&and&the&Yangtze&on&a&map&(probably),&but&I've&never&set&foot&in&China.&The&farthest&East&(West?)&I've&been&is&Japan,&where&I&lived&for&a&year&at&the&end&of&its&'80s&boom.
Cultural&Revolution.&I&have&read&Nien&Cheng's&memoir,&Life&and&Death&in&Shanghai,&twice.&The&story&of&a&middle-aged&woman&ripped&from&her&house&and&jailed&for&six&years&for&refusing&to&confess&her&terrible&capitalist&crimes&(working&for&Shell),&the&book&reveals&how&entire&societies&can&go&temporarily&insane&(a&surprisingly&useful&lesson).&
Business.&A&while&back,&my&insight&into&the&China&business&opportunity&might&have&been&summarized&as&&big,&really&big.&&This&perception&was&supported&by&the&usual&idiot&outsider&logic:&Multiply&the&price&of&whatever&you&are&selling&by&1.3&billion&and&begin&hyperventilating.&I&have&since&read&enough&to&understand&that&direct&investment&in&China,&at&least,&is&no&silk&road&to&riches.&(I&have&not&read&enough&to&understand&what&the&silk&road&to&riches&is.)
So&that's&what&I&know.&To&fill&the&vacuum,&I've&ordered&17&books&from&Amazon.&Soon,&I&will&begin&talking&to&people.&
The&idea&of&this&series&is&to&examine&the&gold&rush&first&from&a&distance&(New&York),&and&then&jet&over&and&see&the&fuss&firsthand.&To&be&successful,&I&will&obviously&have&to&remedy&my&ignorance&post-haste.&I&will&also&have&to&find&people&who&know&what&they&are&talking&about&and&are&willing&to&tell&me.
And&that's&where&I&need&your&help.&
Maybe&you're&an&American&entrepreneur&who&has&a&great&story&about&doing&business&in&China.&Maybe&you're&a&Chinese&businessperson&who&can't&believe&how&foolish&American&investors&are.&Maybe&you&are&someone&who&knows&a&great&factory&I&should&visit&in&Shanghai,&a&brilliant&executive&I&should&talk&to,&or&just&the&right&guy&in&the&Ministry&of&Foreign&Trade&and&Economic&Cooperation.&If&you&are,&please&tell&me&about&it&(on&background,&if&necessary:&I&don't&believe&in&risking&one's&career&just&to&get&the&word&out).&
So&if&you&have&any&suggestions&for&people&I&should&talk&to&and&topics&I&should&study,&please&e-mail&me&at&.&
To&keep&the&series&focused,&I&am&also&going&to&try&to&answer&two&questions:&one&general,&one&specific.&The&general&question&is&whether&China&really&is&the&business&opportunity&of&the&age—at&least&for&American&business&executives.&The&specific&one&is&whether&I&should&try&to&cash&in&on&this&gold&rush&(and&the&last&one)&by&buying&the&stock&of&a&Chinese&Internet&company.
Again,&please&send&suggestions&for&topics,&stories,&and&contacts&to&.&Thank&you.
Henry&Blodget,&a&former&securities&analyst,&lives&in&New&York&City.&
Illustration&by&Robert&Neubecker.
Go&east,&never&give&up!
请问三楼：
never&give&up！
What&meaning?
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永不放弃呀
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Nothing&venture,nothing&have.maybe&you&should&have&a&look&in&china&in&person.
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