17The_contribution_of_Chinese_exports_to_climate_change
上亿文档资料，等你来发现
17The_contribution_of_Chinese_exports_to_climate_change
ARTICLEINPRESS；EnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]；Contentslistsavailableat；EnergyPolicy；journalhomepage:www.else；ThecontributionofChinese；ChristopherL.Webera,?,Gl；CivilandEnvironmentalEng；In
ARTICLEINPRESSEnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]]]ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectEnergyPolicyjournalhomepage:/locate/enpolThecontributionofChineseexportstoclimatechangeChristopherL.Webera,?,GlenP.Petersb,1,DaboGuanc,KlausHubacekdaCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,CarnegieMellonUniversity,Pittsburgh,PA,USAIndustrialEcologyProgramme,NorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnology,7491Trondheim,NorwaycJudgeBusinessSchool,UniversityofCambridge,CambridgeCB21AG,UKdSustainabilityResearchInstitute,SchoolofEarthandEnvironment,UniversityofLeeds,LeedsLS29JT,UKbarticleinfoArticlehistory:Received28March2008Accepted6June2008Keywords:ChinaExportsClimatechangeabstractWithin5years,China’sCO2emissionshavenearlydoubled,andChinamayalreadybetheworld’slargestemitterofCO2.EvidencesuggeststhatexportscouldbeamaincausefortheriseinChineseCO2however,nosystematicstudyhasanalyzedthisissue,especiallyovertime.We?ndthatin2005,aroundone-thirdofChineseemissions(1700MtCO2)wereduetoproductionofexports,andthisproportionhasrisenfrom12%(230Mt)in1987andonly21%(760Mt)asrecentlyas2002.Itislikelythatconsumptioninthedevelopedworldisdrivingthistrend.Amajorityoftheseemissionshavelargelyescapedthescrutinyofargumentsover‘‘carbonleakage’’duetothecurrent,narrowde?nitionofleakage.ClimatepolicieswhichwouldmakethedevelopedworldresponsibleforChina’sexportemissionshavebothbene?tsandcosts,andmustbecarefullydesignedtoachievepoliticalconsensusandequity.Whoeverisresponsiblefortheseemissions,China’srapidlyexpandinginfrastructureandinef?cientcoal-poweredelectricitysystemneedurgentattention.&2008ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.IntroductionWithinaveryshortperiodoftime,from,China’sCO2emissionshavealmostdoubledanditisnowbelievedthatChinaistheworld’sbiggestemitterofCO2(Greggetal.,2008).ChinafacesincreasinginternationalpressuretocurbitsCO2emissions,butarguesthat‘‘[t]herami?cationsoflimitingthedevelopmentofdevelopingcountrieswouldbeevenmoreseriousthanthosefromclimatechange’’(Wu,2007).ChinahasseveralargumentswhyitshouldnotberequiredtolimititsCO2emissionsintheshortterm(NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,2007).First,limitsonChina’sCO2emissionswouldhampereconomicdevelopment.Second,Chinahaslowper-capitaemissions,ranked73rdin2004,thoughthisrankingishigherthansomedevelopedcountriesandgrowingquickly(WRI,2007).Third,historicallyChinaarguesthatitonlycontributesasmallamounttocumulativeemissions,whichistrueonaper-capitabasis―ranking92ndsince1900―butnotforabsoluteemis-sions―rankingfourthsince1990(WRI,2007).Finally,despitecapitalinvestmentsandhouseholdconsumptiondominatingChina’sincreasingCO2emissions(Petersetal.,2007),Chinahascurrentlyfocusedargumentstowardstheroleofexports,claiming?Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+.E-mailaddress:clweber@andrew.cmu.edu(C.L.Weber).Presentaddress:CenterforInternationalClimateandEnvironmentalResearch―Oslo(CICERO),P.O.Box1129,Blindern,N-0318Oslo,Norway.1itshouldnotberesponsibleforemissionsattributabletotheproductionofexports(McGregor,2007).In2005,exportsaccountedforarelativelylargeamount:33%ofChina’sGDP,increasingfrom12%in1987.Despiteseveralreferencestothisissue(AhmadandWyckoff,2003;IEA,2007,pp.290C291;PetersandHertwich,2008a;Petersetal.,2007;WangandWatson,2007),therehavebeennosystematicstudiesonthecontributionofexportstoChina’sCO2emissions,andparticularlyhowthishaschangedovertime.SeveralstudieshaveestimatedtheemissionsembodiedinChina’sexports(andimports),butfewstudieshavefocusedonthisastheprimaryissue.AhmadandWyckoff(2003)usingarelatedmethodtoours,foundthatin1997,15%ofChina’semissionswereembodiedinexportsand3%ofChina’sdomesticemissionswereimported.Petersetal.(2007)foundthatin1997,25%ofChina’semissionswereexportedand24%avoidedbyimportsandin2002,32%and34%,respectively.However,Petersetal.(2007)didnotadjustforimportsintheproductionofexports,andthustheirmethoddiffersslightlyfromwhatisusedhere.WangandWatson(2007)estimatedtheemissionsembodiedinChina’sexportsin2004as23%,thoughtheyusedarelativelysimplemethod,whichfailstocapturesupply-chaineffects.Themostcomprehensivestudytodate,PetersandHertwich(2008a)consideredtheemissionsembodiedintradefor87countriesandregionsandfoundthatin2001Chinaexported24%ofitsCO2emissionsandimported7%ofChina’sdomesticemissions.Thisstudyisthemostsimilarmethodologicallytotheanalysispresentedhereandwillbeusedtosupplementtheresults./$-seefrontmatter&2008ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/j.enpol.ARTICLEINPRESS2C.L.Weberetal./EnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]]]WeapplyenvironmentalinputCoutputanalysis(LeontiefandFord,1972)toestimatetheCO2emissionsemittedintheproductionofexportsinChinafrom,representingthemostrecentdataavailable.Thismethodconsidersalltheupstreamsupply-chaininputsnecessaryfortheproductionofexports.Section2describesmethodsanddatasources,followedbytheresultsandadiscussionoftheirrelevanceinSection3.Foreachyear,then,theemissionsembodiedinexports(orotherGDPcomponents)arecalculatedasfe?FeIàATà1ye(5)2.Methodsanddata2.1.EnvironmentalinputCoutputanalysis(EIOA)ThecalculationsarebasedonenvironmentalinputCoutputanalysis(EIOA)(MillerandBlair,1985;UnitedNations,1999).Thiswell-establishedmethodisthebasisoftheSystemofNationalAccounts(Leontief,1986).Asummaryofthemethodisshownhere,butmoredetailedtreatmentsareavailableelsewhere(MillerandBlair,1985,UnitedNations,1999).AsoriginallyformalizedbyLeontiefinhisgroundbreakingwork(Leontief,1986),thetotaloutputofaneconomy,x,canbeexpressedasthesumofintermediateconsumption,Ax,and?nalconsumption,y:x?Axty(1)wherefeistotaldomesticemissionsembodiedintotalexportsye.Therearedifferentmethodstotreattheemissionsembodiedintradedependingonhowintermediateimportsaredealtwith(Peters,2008).Inthispaper,weconsidertotalexports(andimports)fromChina,thustheexportsincludebothintermediateand?naldemand.Ifaglobalmodelisused,itispossibletoconsidertradeinexportsto?naldemandonly.Bothapproachesarecorrect,buttheydoanswerdifferentquestions.ForChinesepolicyatthenationallevel,itismostrelevanttoanalyzethetotalemissionsinChinaregardlessiftheyareexportsfor?nalconsumersorasinputsintoforeignindustries.Ifonewantstoanalyzetheglobalemissionstoproducedifferentproducts―suchasinlife-cycleassessment―thentradeinintermediateproductsmustbeallocateddifferently.Inadditiontothisstandardmethod,IOAusuallyrequiressomedegreeofcountry-speci?cmanipulationsdependingondataavailability.2.2.NormalizationWefollowstandardproceduresfornormalizationofthemonetaryIOtableandtheenergyandemissionsdata1^àA?ZxtotalwhereAistheeconomy’sdirectrequirementsmatrixandyisthedemandforwhichthesupply-chainoutput,x,istobederived.ThematrixAdescribestherelationshipbetweenallsectorsoftheeconomy.Inthisstudy,weusedfourseparate?naldemandcategoriesfromeachyear’sinputCoutputtable:householdconsumption,?xedcapitalinvestment,exports,andgovernmentalconsumption.Whensolvedfortotaloutput,thisequationyieldsx?eIàATà1y(2)(6)Whencoupledwithanenvironmentalmatrix,F,whichshowstheenvironmentalemissionscausedbyeachsectorinthemodel,normalizedbythesector’seconomicoutput,x?(x1x2yxn)T,(wherenisthenumberofsectorsintheinputCoutputtable)thetotalamountofemissionscanbecalculatedasf?FeIàATà1y(3)whereAistheinter-industryrequirementsmatrix,whichrepresentsthetechnologyoftheChineseeconomyand4representsdiagonalization.BecausetheenergydataaremoreaggregatedthantheIOTs,itisnecessarytomapbetweentheIOsectorsandtheenergysectorsforeachyear.Tonormalizethetotalenergyandemissionsdata,T,we?rstaggregatetheoutputtothesectorclassi?cationusedintheenergyandemissionsdataandthennormalizebeforedisaggregatingbacktotheIOTaggregationF?TePxtotalTà1P(7)withfrepresentingthesector-wisetotalsupply-chainemissionstomeetthe?naldemandy.ThisisthestandardmethodforenvironmentalIOA.However,thismethodisnotsuf?cientforstudiesoftradeasthedirectrequirementsmatrixAusuallydoesnotdistinguishbetweendomesticallyproducedandimportedproducts(UnitedNations,1993).Thus,itiscommontoderivenewrequirementsmatricesand?naldemandvectorsinwhichonlydomesticgoodsareincluded,Adandyd:miiiiAd?diagesT?Asi?yd?diagesT?yforalliwherePrepresentsthemappingbetweenIOsectorsandenergysector,constructedfromthesectordescriptionsoftheIOTandenergydata.ThisprocedureassumesthatallIOsectorsthatmaptotheoneenergysectorhavethesameemissionintensity.SincetheIOTandenergyintensitiesnowhavethesameindustryclassi?cation,wecanperformthecalculationforeachyear,asshownaboveinEq.(5).2.3.ApproximationofregionalresponsibilitySinceIOTsdonotincludeinformationaboutthecountryofdestinationforexports,additionaldatawereneeded.Thisanalysiswasbasedonapreviousstudybyoneoftheauthors(GP)usingtheGTAPdatabase(PetersandHertwich,2008a).Theirmethodol-ogyissimilarasdescribedinthispaper,exceptthatPetersandHertwich(2008a)cover87countriesandregionsata57-sectorresolutionforasingleyear,2001.ThecalculationdonehereisextendedbyincludingthebilateraltimeseriesfromfromtheGTAPdatabase.Thetimeserieshassomediscontinuitiesintheearly1990sresultingfromthebreak-upoftheFormerSovietUnionanddifferentsectorclassi?cationsinGTAPovertime.Sincethetradedataareincurrentpricesweconsidertradeshares,whichassumessimilarin?ationaryeffectsandef?ciencyim-provementsbetweencountriesandsectorsovertime.Whilethisassumptiondoesnotholdinreality(IEA,2007),itissatisfactoryfortheapproximationofresponsibilityoverthetimeinvestigatedinthispaper.TheGTAPtradedataonlyextendedto2002.(4)wheresiistheshareofimportsinthesupplyofproductsandservicestoeachsector,i.Thismethodremovesimportedgoods,m,fromthedirectrequirementstableandfromcomponentsofGDPotherthanexports,e,(householdconsumption,capitalinvest-ment,andgovernmentconsumption).Thismethodassumesthateacheconomicsectorand?naldemandcategoryusesimportsforexample,itassumesthatindustry,government,andhouseholdseachconsumethesameshareofdomesticallyproducedandimportedsoftware.ARTICLEINPRESSC.L.Weberetal./EnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]]]3For2005thedestinationoftheemissionsembodiedinChina’sexportswasapproximatedbasedonChineseexportdata(totalexportsbycountryofdestination)fromtheChinaStatisticalYearbook2007(NationalBureauofStatistics,2007b).Datafortheyears,and2002wereaveragedtoobtainapproximatecarbonintensitiesoftotai.e.,CO2/yuan,whichwerethenusedforlinearinterpolationofembodiedcarboninexportsforusingtotalexports(dataforwererathersimilarinallregions,justifyingtheassumptionthatthesecarbonintensitieswouldholdthroughto2005,Table1).Forexample,from,exportstotheUSwereseenasrelativelymorecarbonintensivethanexportstotherestoftheworld.TheserelativefactorsfromTable1werethenusedincombinationwithtotalexportstoeachregion,Table2,toapproximateembodiedCO2exportedtoeachregionin.4.Datasources2.4.1.InputCoutputtablesWeemployedChina’sinputCoutputtables(IOT)fromLiandXue(1998)for,and1995with30sectorsinconstant1990prices.WeobtainedtheinputCoutputtablesfromtheChineseNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)for1992with118sectors(NationalBureauofStatistics,with124sectors(NationalBureauofStatistics,with122sectors(NationalBureauofStatistics,2006),and2005with42sectors(NationalBureauofStatistics,2007a),allatcurrentprices.Allthetableshavethesame?naldemandcategories:householdconsumption,governmentexpenditures,capitalsinvestments,exports,imports,and‘‘others’’.‘‘Others’’representsabalancespeci?ctotheChineseIOTandwasremovedfromtheIOT(Petersetal.,2007,SupportingInformation).2.4.2.EnergyandemissionsdataTheCO2byindustrysectorfor,and2002wereconstructedinpreviousworkbytwooftheauthors(GPandCW),anddataforallotheryearswerecalculatedusingthesamemethod(seePetersetal.,2006fordetails).Theemissionsincludeboththecombustionoffuelsandindustrialprocessesandwereconstructedusingof?cialChineseenergystatisticsandtheIPCCTable1Relativecarbonintensityofexportstoeachregion,,as%ofembodiedemissions/%valueoftradeCO2/yuanUnitedStatesEuropeanUnion(EU-27)EconomiesinTransitionRestofAnnexBNon-AnnexBCountries1.281.020.860.900.91referenceapproach(IPCC,1996).Theenergyandemissionsdatahave36industrysectors.3.ResultsFig.1showsabreakdownofChina’sCO2emissionsfromintothefourdrivingforcesofGDP:householdconsump-tion,capitalinvestment,governmentexpenditure,andexports.Sinceimportshavealreadybeensubtractedfromproductionfunctions(Eq.(4)),thesumofthesefourcomponentsequalstotaldomesticCO2emissions,asopposedtototalCO2emissionsembodiedinconsumption.We?ndthatin00Mt)ofChina’sdomesticCO2emissionswereintheproductionofexportsandthishassteadilyincreasedfrom12%(230Mt)in1987.Interestingly,these?guresmirrorverycloselytheriseofexportsasapercentageofGDP,meaningthatexportsareonaveragenomoreorlesscarbonintensivethandomesticconsumptionandinvestment.Toputthis?gureintoperspective,China’sexportemissionsinMt)weresimilartothecombinedemissionsofGermany,France,andtheUK(1850Mt)(EIA,2007).AriseinexportedCO2,fromonly21%(759Mt)ofdomesticemissions,hasoccurredsince2002,mirroringboththeoverallsteepincreaseinChina’sCO2emissions(keepinginmindpotentialundercountingin2002)andthelargeincreaseinexportsoverthisperiod,from22%ofGDPin2002to33%in2005.Inmostyears,thegrowthrateoftheemissionsfromtheproductionofexportsisgreaterthanthegrowthrateoftotalemissions,showingtheparticularimportanceofexportstoChina’sgrowthinCO2emissions.ItisusefultobreakdowntheChineseexportemissionsbycommodity.Fig.2showsabreakdownofthegrowthintheseemissionsbymajorcommoditygroupsthatChinaexports.Recently(in2005),substantialfractionsoftotalemissionswereduetoexportsofelectronics(22%oftotal),metalproducts(13%),textiles(11%),andchemicalproducts(10%).Itisclearthatthelargerecentgrowthinexportemissionsisincreasinglyduetoadvancedproducts,muchmoresothanpreviously,asthe1995breakdownofexportemissionswassubstantiallydifferent:19%textiles,13%electronics,12%machinery,and10%chemicals,and7%metalproducts.Emissionsembodiedinprimaryproductexports(includinghere:allmining,rawtimber,rawchemicals,Tg CO201987AnnexBreferstotheAnnexBcountriesoftheKyotoProtocol.Table2Totalexportsharetoeachregionfrom(seeFig.3forcountryde?nitions)2003USEU27EITRestofBNon-B0.210.180.020.170.420.020.160.430.020.150.43Fig.1.China’stotaldomesticCO2emissions,separatedintodrivingdemand:exports,governmentalconsumption,householdconsumption,andcapitalinvest-ment.4C.L.Weberetal./EnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]]]Tg CO2008789919395039919191919199701201919202005Fig.2.Chineseexportemissionsbymajorcommoditygroup(TgCO2).Table3TotalCO2emissions,emissionsembodiedinexports(EEE),andemissionsavoidedbyimports(EAI)1987TotalEEEEAI20601000170?2200AllvaluesinTgCO2.Theemissionsavoidedbyimportsaredifferenttotheactualemissionsembodiedinimports(seetext).?Theactualemissionembodiedinimportsfor2001wasestimatedtobe216MtCO2(seetext).andbasicmetals)havedecreasedfrombetween20%to24%intheearlyyearsoftheanalysis()toonly13%inastheChineseeconomyhasdevelopedintoproducinghighervalue-addeditems.Chinaalsoisalargeimporterandavoidsdomesticemissionsbyimportingrawmaterialsaswellas?nalgoodsandservices.Themethodutilizedhere(single-regionEIOA)canbeusedtoestimatetheCO2emissions,whichwouldhaveoccurredinChinahadallChineseimportsbeenmadedomestically(typicallycalled‘‘emissionsavoidedbyimports’’,EAI).Table3showsthisquantity,inmilliontonnesofCO2(TgCO2),aswellastotalChineseemissions(total)andemissionsembodiedinexports(EEE)forcomparison.Clearly,Chinaavoidslargeamountsofemissiineveryyeartheavoidedemissionsarehigherthantheexportedemissions.However,EAIisabiasedmeasureforChina,sinceChina’scarbonintensityissigni?cantlyhigherthanmostcountriescarbonintensity(PetersandHertwich,2008a;Petersetal.,2007).Abetterestimateofemissionsembodiedinimportscanbecalculatedusingaglobalmodel(usuallylimitedtoasingleyear),butthisisbeyondthescopeofthispaper.PetersandHertwichestimatedtheemissionsembodiedinChinesetradeusingaglobalmodelandfoundthat216MtofCO2wasembodiedinChineseimportsin2001.Thiscomparesto1170Mtavoidedbyimportsin2002estimatedinthispaper.ThecurrentfocusonChinamirrorstheimportanceoftradeintheenvironmentalpro?leofmanyothercountries.Forexample,in2001,22%ofglobalCO2emissionswereintheproductionofexports(PetersandHertwich,2008a).CountriesvarywidelyintheirrelativesharesofCO2mostEuropeancountrieshaveahighshareoftheirdomesticemissionsintheproductionofexports(20C50%),theUSAhad8%,Japan15%,India13%,SouthKorea28%,andSouthAfrica45%(PetersandHertwich,2008a).Akeyexplanatoryvariablefortheshareofemissionsintheproductionofexportsissize―ingeneral,smallcountrieshavelargershareswhilelarge,andthusrelativelyself-suf?cient,countrieshavelowershares.Chinadoesnotfallintothiscategorizationasitisalargecountrywithalargeshareofexports.China’sexportsthusplayamoreimportantroleinitsenvironmentalpro?lecomparedwithothercountries.AkeyquestioniswhethertherapidgrowthofexportsinChina―oranyothercountry―isattheexpenseofproductionindevelopedcountries,looselytermedbymanyas‘‘carbonleakage’’(Metzetal.,2007)orthe‘‘pollutionhavenhypothesis(PHH)’’(Rothman,1998).TheIPCChasplacedlowimportanceoncarbonleakagesinceitsde?nitionofleakageonlyconsidersmarginalemissionchangesinnon-AnnexIcountriesresultingexplicitlyfromclimatepolicywithinAnnexIcountries(PetersandHertwich,2008b).ItisunlikelythatChina’sincreasedexportemissionsareduetocurrentclimatepolicyinAnnexItheyaresimplyabyproductofChina’sotheradvantagesforproductionsuchaslowerenvironmentalstandardsandlowerlaborcosts.UsingtheIPCCde?nitiononewouldexpectto?ndlowlevelsofcarbonleakage,andthus,theproblemhasbeende?nedaway.Buttheissuedoesremain:increasedconsumptioninAnnexIcountriesismetbyexpandedproductioninnon-AnnexIcountries(PetersandHertwich,2008a;Rothman,1998;WeberandMatthews,2007).Astrongerde?nitionofcarbonleakageconsidersincreasesinemissionsinnon-AnnexIcountriesthatmightoccurforreasonsotherthanclimatepolicyinAnnexIcountries.Itisthislattertypeof‘‘carbonleakage’’thatliesatthecoreofChina’sincreasedexportemissions.Indeed,largeportionsofrecentChineseexportemissionsgotothedevelopedworld,withapproximately27%totheUS,19%totheEU-27,and14%totheremainingAnnexBcountries,mainlyJapan,Australia,andNewZealand(Fig.3).Whileapproximately40%ofChina’sexportemissionsgotothenon-AnnexBdevelopingworld,these?owsarestillimportantbecauseChineseexportstodevelopingcountriesmaydisplaceeitherdomesticproductionthereorproductionfromanothertradingpartner,whichwouldhavereleasedlessCO2forthesameamountofproducts.Thisisbecauserelativetoproductioninmostothercountries,Chineseproductionismorepolluting,duebothtoinef?cient100%80%Share of Exported CO260%40%20%0%2005Fig.3.RegionofdestinationforChineseCO2emissionsembodiedinexportsbyyear.EU27doesnotincludeanyeconomiesintransition(EIT),and‘‘RestofB’’representsallremainingAnnexBcountriesthatdonotfallintoanothergroup.Thedipsandpeaksrepresentchangesintradeshares,eventhoughgrowthcontinued.Annualvariationscanrepresentbothrealisticchangesandalsoerrorsinthetradedata.Thedipintheearly1990’srelatestopoliticalboundarychangesandamergingofdifferentdatasets.C.L.Weberetal./EnergyPolicy](]]]])]]]C]]]5productionsystemsandacoal-dominatedelectricitysupply(PetersandHertwich,2008a;Petersetal.,2007;WeberandMatthews,2007).ThelowcostofChineseproductiondoesbene?tmostconsumers,butthisbene?tcomesatthedetrimentofboththelocalChineseenvironment(Streetsetal.,2006)andtheglobalenvironmentduetotheeffectsofclimatechange.CheapproductioninChinacouldbegloballybene?cialintermsoftheenvironmentaswell,though,particularlyindrivingdownthecostsofenvironmentalproductslikeenergy-ef?cientlightingorwindturbines.AnyincreasedemissionsfromproductionoftheseproductsinChinawouldlikelybeoutweighedbythepositiveimpactsoftheiruse(seeforexampleLenzenandMunksgaard,2002).Unfortunately,thispotentialbene?tofcheapChineseproductionhasnotyetmaterialized.Recently,Chinareactedtoboththeincreasingpollutioncausedbytheproductionofexportsandfearsofresourcesecuritybyraisingexporttaxesoncertainproducts(MinistryofFinancePeople’sRepublicofChina,2007).Theseexporttaxeswereplacedmostlyonprimaryproductssuchasrawmetalsandchemicals.However,aspreviouslyshownabove,theseproductsrepresentasmallfractionoftheemissionsfromChina’sexports―approxi-mately13%in2005,evenifallchemicalsareincludedinthiscategory(seeFig.2).Amoreeffectiveapproachwouldusemonetaryortaxpolicytodiscouragelarge-volumeexportcommoditiessuchaselectronics(22%ofexportedCO2in2005),machinery(19%),metalproducts(13%),andtextiles(11%).However,sincethesehighervalue-addedproductscontributemoretoChina’seconomicgrowththanprimaryproducts,thisapproachwouldleadtobothhighercoststotheChineseeconomythroughlossincompetitiveness,aswellascoststoconsumingcountriesthroughincreasingin?ation.Thus,itisunlikelyintheshortterm.However,overthelongertermitisintheinterestofbothWesterncountriesandChinatolowertheenergyandcarbonintensityofitsproductionpractices,astheadvantagesofproducinginChinaareimmense.Perhaps,then,cooperationonlow-carbonresearchanddevelopmentisthebestavenueforwardfrombothsides.theseissues(thoughweusedatarevisedforthethirdtimeafterrelease,suchasusingdatareleasedin2005foryear2002),thoughwenotethatthismaycauseanunderestimationofChina’sexportemissionsin2000and2002.Thus,inthefaceofsuchlargeuncertaintiesinbothmethodanddata,thecalculatedemissionsembodiedinexportsmustberegardedasapproximate.However,thescaleandtrendofthenumbersareunlikelytobeaffectedextremelyinanyonedirectionbytheseuncertainties,withtheexceptionofthepotentialunderestimationofcoalconsumptionin2000and2002.5.Discussion:whoisresponsibleforChina’semissions?ItisclearChineseexportsarecurrentlyresponsibleforlargeamountsofgrourestimateforMtCO2)represents6%ofglobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuels(EIA,2007).ThisstaggeringstatisticbegsthequestionofwhoshouldberesponsiblefortheemissionsresultingfromtheproductionofChina’sexports(MunksgaardandPedersen,2001).Thereare,ofcourse,manyargumentsfrombothsidesoftheissue.Ontheonehand,whileChina’seconomicdevelopmentbene?tsfromexportgrowth,sodotheconsumersindevelopedcountries,anditcanbearguedthattheyshouldbeheldatleastsomewhatresponsibleforemissionsoccurringbecauseoftheirdemandforlow-pricedgoods.IftheseconsumersweretobecomepartiallyresponsibleforChina’sexportemissions(Peters,2008),perhapsChinawouldbemorewillingtoplayanactiveroleinpost-Kyotoclimatecommitments.Ingeneral,recognizingtheroletheinternationaltradeplaysingreenhousegasemissionsmayopennewopportunities,andispossiblyapreconditionforpoliticalagreement(PetersandHertwich,2008a).However,ifothersbecomeresponsibleforChina’sexportemissions,thenwhoisresponsibleforChina’simportedcarbonemissions?Chinaitselfimportsmanyproducts,includingmanycomponentsofthe?nalproductsitexports,anditavoidsgreenhousegasemissionsbydoingso.Asshownabove,inallyearsanalyzed,nomatterhowtheyarecountedthetotalemissionsembodiedinChina’simportsaresubstantial,andifChinadoesnotwanttobeheldresponsibleforitsexportedemissions,itmustbeheldatleastresponsibleforwhatitimports.Althoughone-thirdofChina’sCO2emissionsresultfromtheproductionofexports,itisimportanttokeeptrackoftheremainingtwo-thirdsofemissions.Capitalexpenditurenecessaryforbuildingupinfrastructureandproductioncapacitieshasbeenresponsibleforbetween32%and37%ofChina’sCO2emissionssince1987(seeaboveFig.1).Ofcourse,atleastpartoftheseemissionscouldbeindirectlyattributedtoexportsbecausemuchoftheinfrastructureimprovementsoccurringareforexportproduction.However,datawerenotavailabletoallocateChina’scapitalexpendituresbydifferentsectorstodomesticorexportmarkets.Theimportanceofexportsandcapitalgoodscanalsobeshownbythefactthathouseholdconsumptionisresponsibleforadecreasingportionofemissions,from45%in1987downto28%in2005.Thisdropinhouseholdconsumption’sshareintotalemissionsmirrorstheoveralldropinprivateconsumptionshareinChina,possiblyduetohighsavingsratescausedbypeculiaritiesofthelabormarketandsocialsystem(ModiglianiandCao,2004)andespeciallyduetolowhouseholdincomescausedbyanunderdeveloped?nancialsector(AzizandCui,2007).Never-theless,householdconsumptioniswidelyseenasthefuturedriverofChina’seconomy,andthusitsfutureCO2emissions(AzizandCui,2007;IEA,2007).WhoeverisresponsibleforemissionstoproduceChineseexports,inef?cientandcoal-dominatedelectricityproductionisat4.UncertaintiesWhiletheresultsclearlyshowtheimportanceandscaleoftheissueofChineseexportsandclimatechange,itisimportanttostressthemanyuncertaintiesincalculatingandallocatingsuchemissions(WeberandMatthews,2007).InputCoutputanalysisitselfhasmanyinherentuncertaintiesrelatedtothecalculationandbalancingoftheactualtables(whichareoutsidethehandsofIOpractitioners),aggregationofunlikeproductsintoeconomicsectors,theassumptionofproportionalityandlinearity,andmanyothers(seeLenzen,2001foradetaileddiscussion).The‘‘importsassumption’’isparticularlyimportanthere,assingle-regionIOAisnotabletocorrectlycalculatetheemissionsembodiedinChina’simports,onlyemissionsavoidedbyimporting.Themethod’sinherentlimitationsarecompoundedwithlargedatauncertaintiesinbotheconomicandparticularlyenergydata.Forexample,severalauthorshavequestionedthelegitimacyoftheof?cialChineseenergystatisticsforcertainyears,especiallyfromaround(Sinton,2001;Streetsetal.,2001;Wu,2007).Duringthisperiod,Chinesecoalconsumption?rstdeclinedandthenroseprecipitously,creatingsubstantialvariationintheenergyintensityoftheeconomy.Thereisstillsigni?cantcontroversyoverwhetherthedeclineinenergyintensitywasrealorafactorofunder-reportingtodatacollectionagencies(Petersetal.,2007),thoughrecentsatellitedataseemstosuggestsomelevelofunder-reporting(Akimotoetal.,2006).WeutilizetherawdatafromtheChinesestatisticalagenciesdespite包含各类专业文献、中学教育、应用写作文书、外语学习资料、生活休闲娱乐、17The_contribution_of_Chinese_exports_to_climate_change等内容。　
　It was drawn by Chinese ink, aiming for a aesthetic sensibility of Chinese...The contribution of Pixar is more than the success of movie. The company ... 　国际竞争力的作用时发 现, “碳关税” 其效果一般, 特别短期内远没有全球部门协调与技术共享显著 (The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change ,2008... 　What Chinese official's contribution in the world economic recovery can show...Like a tree, when environment change they will first of all adjust to it... 　the whole Chinese nation&是 特指;victory 是泛指....D. The contribution of oxen to the economy. (...exports and second on the West Coast in total ... 　 Chinese people and mankind’s long-term development, we have exerted unremitting effort and made positive contribution to the fight against climate change.... 　7 2013 年 4 月 6 日基口考试下午口译 Chinese-...which makes great contribution to human progress. ...The country has long been second in rice exports... 　 The Significance of the Ch‘ing Period in Chinese History_哲学/历史_人文...the location of its frontiers, the contribution of the Ch ‘ing period to... 　 The Influences of Qian Zhongshu to Chinese ...contribution, and train generations of economist, ... an administrative adjustment saw the change of ... 　thereby making a significant contribution to addressing global climate change. ...The Chinese government has selected key fields of these industries, ...