break the legfirst leg was a...

来源：蜘蛛抓取(WebSpider) 时间：2011-10-07 01:23 标签： break the leg
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, 1 December 2015, Pages 641–647
Innovative Applications of O.R.What is a good result in the first leg of a two-legged football match?, , , , , , , , , a Universidad Carlos III, Deapartamento de Estad&stica, Avda. Universidad Carlos III 22, 28270 Colmenarejo, Madrid, Spainb University of Liverpool Management School, Chatham Street, Liverpool L69 7ZH, UKc Daedalus, S.A.. Edificio Vallausa II, Avda. de la Albufera 321, 1& Planta - Oficina 10 28031 Madrid, Spaind Universidad Carlos III. Departamento de Estad&stica. C/Madrid 126, 28903 Getafe (Madrid), Spaine Universit& di Sassari, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e aziendali, Via Torre Tonda 34-07100 Italy&We use data on 6975 two-legged ties in pan-European club football tournaments.&We estimate a probit model to assess probabilities of reaching the next round.&The model accounts for team strengths.&Estimates are for use once the result of the first leg is known.&What is a &good& first-leg result for a club has changed substantially over time.The most important pan-European football tournaments include ties where two clubs play each other over two matches and the aggregate score determines which is admitted to the next stage of the competition. A number of stakeholders may be interested in assessing the chances of progression for either of the clubs once the score of the first match (leg) is known. The paper asks what would be a &good& result for a team in the first leg. Employing data from 6,975 contests, modelling reveals that what constitutes a good result has changed substantially over time. Generally, clubs which play at home in the first leg have become more likely to convert any given first-leg result to eventual success. Taking this trend into account, and controlling for team and country strength, a probit model is presented for use in generating probability estimates for which team will progress conditional on the first-leg scoreline. Illustrative results relate to ties where two average teams play each other and to ties where a relatively weak club plays home-first against a relatively strong club. Given that away goals serve as a tie-breaker should aggregate scores be equal after the two matches, the results also quantify how great the damage is when a home-first club concedes an away goal.KeywordsOR in sports; Football; Two-legged matches; Home advantage
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No articles found.Television Show : The Amazing Race - The World is Waiting: Go! [The Amazing Race]
- The second group of the Amazing Race contestants are off on the first leg of a journey across the wo...

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