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英国脱欧：盲人瞎马，南辕北辙
作者：&&&&时间：&&&&来源：&&&&已阅读次
Britain and Europe
英国与欧洲
Making the break
How Britaincould fall out of the European Union, and what it would mean
英国如何能够脱离欧盟，以及脱离欧盟意味着什么？
BRITAINhas never been too keen on tying the knot with Europe. It sat aside in the1950s as Germany, France, Italy and the Benelux countries forged a single in coal and , which became a broader common . It eventuallyjoined, in 1973, largely because Europe seemed to be where the money was.Britons still think of their relationship with Europe as a transaction. Buttheir feelings about the costs and benefits of membership have changed utterly.
英国从未热心于与欧洲紧密联系。当1950年代，德国、法国、意大利以及比荷卢三国关税同盟国家建立煤铁统一市场（后来发展成为更加广泛的共同市场）的时候，英国坐在一边看热闹。1973年，英国最终加入了这一共同市场，主要是因为欧洲看起来是金钱之地。英国依然认为与欧洲的关系是一场交易。然而他们对于（欧盟）成员身份所带来的成本与受益的感觉，已经发生了巨大改变。
Europeis no longer the thriving economic club that Britain joined 40 years ago. Theeuro-zone
has exposed the lack of dynamism in much of Europe (thoughBritain itself is hardly booming) and the British also feel sidelined, ascountries that use the single currency are pulled more tightly together.Britons have come to associate the EU with the uncontrolled immigration of Polesand other east Europeans, seemingly to every village. Although many politicalleaders are deined to stop it happening, a British exit from Europe iscoming to seem ever more .
欧洲再也不是英国四十年前加入的那个欣欣向荣的经济团体了。欧元区的危机暴露出欧洲许多国家缺乏活力（尽管英国自身也很难算得上繁荣），而使用统一货币的国家更加紧密抱团，因而英国还是感到被边缘化了。英国已经与欧盟就波兰及其他东欧国家（似乎深入每个乡村）不受控制的移民达成联合。尽管许多政治领袖阻止其发生，然而英国从欧洲脱离，似乎越来越有可能了。
IfBritain falls out of the EU, it may find itself completely outside the single. It might try to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA), a free-tradeclub that also includes Iceland and Norway. Or it could leave both the EU andthe single , but attempt to recreate a free-trade relationship throughbilateral s. In this article we explain what each would mean forBritish business and the . But, first, how could an exit happen?
如果英国脱离欧盟，它会发现自己完全置身于统一市场之外。英国也许会加入欧洲经济区（EEA），这是一个包含冰岛和挪威的自由贸易俱乐部。或者英国脱离欧盟和统一市场，但是尝试通过双边协议（与其他欧盟国家）建立自由贸易关系。本文将解释每个选择对于英国的商业经济意味着什么。但是首先，退出是怎么发生的？
Almost by accident&& 几乎是偶然
Thelikeliest trigger is a . David Cameron, Britain&s prime minister, isunder enormous pressure to call one from his own Conservative Party, whichdominates Britain&s
. Last year 81 Tory MPs voted for a on Britain&s EU membership. &It&s moved very fast,& says JohnRedwood, a veteran critic of the EU. &People used to call me an extremeEurosceptic. Now I&m a moderate.&
最有可能的导火索是全民公决。为了在他自己的掌控英国联合政府的保守党内开展一次公决，英国首相戴维&卡梅伦承受着巨大压力。去年，有81名保守党国会议员提议就英国是否成为欧盟成员进行全民公决。&风向转的特别快，&欧盟的一名资深评论家约翰&雷德伍德如是说，&人们过去认为我是个极端的欧洲怀疑论者。现在我是个温和派。&
Trulyfervent Eurosceptics seek a
because they want to quit the EU. OtherTories want one to spike the guns of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), whichs for an exit. UKIP, a once-minor party that came second to Labour intwo by-elections on November 29th, takes votes from all parties but mostterrifies Conservative MPs. If the party does well in the next EuropeanParliament elections, due in 2014, the pressure on Mr Cameron will increase.
真正狂热的欧洲怀疑论者寻求全民公决，因为他们想要脱离欧盟。其他保守党员想要阻止英国独立党（UKIP）所发起的退出运动。UKIP这个曾经的小党派，通过11月29日的两次补选成为仅次于工党的大党派，他们寻求所有政党的支持，但是这些政党都害怕保守党。如果该党（不是很确定诶，到底是UKIP还是保守党呢？）在2014年的下一届欧洲议会选举中表现良好，卡梅伦首相的压力将会增加。
Heis already bending. In September the prime minister hinted that Britons mighthave an opportunity to give &fresh consent& to their country&s place in alooser union&a rather fuzzy suggestion that is unlikely to dampen calls for astarker question. Some Tory cabinet ministers now expect the party to include apromise of an &In-Out&
on Europe in its 2015 general-electionmanifesto.
他已经有所屈从了。9月份他暗示英国也许有机会&新鲜同意&加入一个更加松散的联盟&&这建议如此模糊，以至于不能抑制更加苛刻的质疑的呼声。一些保守党内阁部长现在期待保守党在2015年大选宣言中承诺举行加入还是退出欧洲的全民公决。
Thatmight persuade Labour to follow suit&which is the second
scenario.Although the party is broadly pro-European, some Labour strategists have beenurging Ed Miliband, its leader, to promise a
all the same, chieflyto pile pressure on Mr Cameron but also to stay on the right side of opinion. &Whatever our position on Europe, we cannot be seen as theanti- party,& a senior Labour figure says.
第二种全民公决的情况是说服工党跟风。尽管广泛支持欧盟，工党的许多战略家还是力促其党魁埃德&米利班德照样承诺全民公决，不但可以给卡梅伦首相施加压力，还能站在公众舆论正确的一边。&不管我们对欧洲采取什么立场，我们都不可以被视作反对全民公决的党派。&一位工党高级人物如是说。
Thethird scenario is already in play, thanks to the 2011 European Union Act.Passed by the , this dictates that a
must be held on anynew EU treaty that shifts power from Westminster to Brussels. The EU is acutelyaware of this obstacle, so where treaty change is envisaged, it is trying tofocus it as narrowly as
on the euro zone, of which Britain is not amember. But the EU&s creeping claim on its constituents&
powerssuggests that this & lock& could be activated. The next treatychange, which could take place in 2015 or 2016, will be the moment for MrCameron (if he is re-elected) to try to repatriate some powers from Brussels inthe &new settlement& he seeks with Europe. If Britons voted to reject therevised treaty there would be redoubled pressure for a second , ontheir membership of the European club.
得益于2011年的欧盟法，第三种情况正在发生。欧盟通过的这项法案，规定任何把权力从威斯敏斯特转移到布鲁塞尔的新欧盟条约，都必须要进行全民公决。欧盟十分清楚这是个障碍，所以条约在哪儿产生变化是可以预见的，因此欧盟尽力严密地聚力于欧元区，而英国并非其成员。但是欧盟对于其成员国权利至高无上的卑微声明，则暗示&全民公决之锁&是可以被激活的。下一次条约变更，也许会发生在2015年或者2016年，就是卡梅伦首相（假设他连任）拿出他寻求的&新的解决方案&，从布鲁塞尔拿回部分权力的时候。如果英国投票否决这一改进的条约，那么是否欧洲俱乐部成员的第二次全民公决，压力将是双倍的。
Thereis a fourth scenario: simple diplomatic miscalculation. A year ago, at a summitwhere they agreed on a fiscal compact, almost all other EU leaders bandedtogether to sidestep a British veto. If that were to happen again on an issuethat Britons care more deeply about, Mr Cameron may face irresistible pressureto call an early .
还有第四种情况：简单的外交错估。一年前的一次峰会上，他们同意了一项财政协议，几乎所有其他欧盟国家领导人一起联合起来绕开英国的否决。如果这种情况在事关英国深彻关切的事务的时候再次发生，那么尽早召开全民公决的压力对卡梅伦来说也许是不可抗拒的。
Theearly signs are that Britons would opt to push off. YouGov&s latest poll on theissue suggests that 49% would vote to leave, whereas only 32% would choose tostay (the rest are unsure). One senior Tory, who wants Britain to stay in, saysblankly that it would be im to win a
at the moment.
早期的迹象表明英国人会选择退出。YouGov对此事的最新调查显示，49%的英国人会投票选择退出，仅有32%的人选择继续留着（剩下的不确定）。一位希望英国留下的保守党高级官员茫然表示，到时候不可能赢得全民公决。
Theleaders of all three main parties, backed by business and trade unions, couldtry to woo Britons to Europe. But they would have plenty of opposition, and notjust from other MPs. When Britain last voted on Europe, in 1975, every nationalnewspaper except the Morning Star ed for an &In& vote. That willnot be repeated. Britain&s two biggest-selling dailies, the Daily Mail andthe Sun&combined circulation, 4.5m&are deeply Eurosceptic.
在商业和贸易联盟的支持下，三个主要政党的领袖可以试图将英国推向欧洲。但是他们的反对者多的是，不仅仅是其他国会议员。1975年，上一次英国就欧洲事物进行投票，除了晨星报，所有国家级报纸都呼吁民众投加入票。然而盛况不再。英国两大最畅销日报，每日邮报和太阳报，有450万的联合发行量，都是彻头彻尾的欧洲怀疑论者。
Whatwould make the vote unable is that Britons cannot have what they reallywant. If offered a &detached relationship that is little more than a free-trade&, according to the same YouGov poll, only 26% would still opt for theexit. The biggest group of respondents, 46%, would accept those looser s.But continental leaders are unwilling to grant Britain full access to thesingle
without the costly bits. Germany&s chancellor, Angela Merkel,says she dearly wants to keep Britain in the EU&but &as a good partner&. In therun-up to a promised , Mr Cameron could win only triflingconcessions. That might
some Britons that life outside the EU but it might equally inflame Eurosceptic opinion and make an &out&vote more likely.
英国人得不到他们真正想要的，这将使得投票结果变得不可预测。根据同样是YouGov所作的调查，当提供&几乎等于是自由贸易协定式的超然关系&这一选择时，只有26%的被调查者仍然选择退出。最大一组调查对象（占46%）选择松散的关系。但是不付出高昂代价，欧洲大陆领导人是不愿意允许英国完全进入统一市场的。德国总理安吉拉&默克尔表示，她真诚希望英国留在欧盟，但要&做一个好伙伴&。在许诺进行全民公决的预备阶段，卡梅伦首相所能赢得的让步微不足道。如此也许会说服一些英国人，让他们相信离开欧盟的日子不好过；但同样更可能的是让欧洲怀疑论调更加甚嚣尘上，让英国人投票退出欧盟。
Very well, alone&
一个人也不赖
IfBritain walked away entirely&the most extreme scenario&it would quickly seesome benefits. The country would no longer have to transfer funds to the EU tosubsidise farm incomes or poorer regions. Treasury figures suggest it would be&8 billion ($13 billion) better off each year. Food could become cheaper. UnderWTO rules, countries may slash import barriers unilaterally as long as they donot favour some countries over others. Britain could do this for agriculturalproduce. It would regain control over fishing
around its coast.
如果英国彻底退出欧盟（这是最极端的情况），它将很快获得一些好处。国家将不再需要将基金转到欧盟来补贴农业收入和贫困地区。财政部的数据显示，每年将节约80亿英镑（约合130亿美元）。食品会更便宜。根据世界贸易组织（WTO）规定，只要不歧视第三方，各个国家可以单方面削减进口壁垒。为了农业生产，应该可以这么做。它将重新获得对其周围海域的渔业控制权。
Someirksome regulations could be ditched, too. First to go (if the Tories are inpower when Britain leaves) would be the working-time directive. This limits howlong people can be at work without a break or a holiday and caps the workingweek at 48 hours. The scrapping of the EU&s agency-worker directive, whichgives temporary staff the same
as regular employees, would be cheered bybusiness, too. Britain would be free to set itself a less exacting target forgreen-power generation than it is bound to under the EU&s renewable-energydirective. That could mean cheaper power.
一些讨厌的规则也会被废弃。首先（假设英国退出时保守党还在当权）就是工作时数指令。该指令限制人们每周最多工作48小时，之后必须获得休息或者休假。这项针对欧盟机构工作者（临时工与正式员工享有同等权利）的指令的废除，也会收到商业工作者的欢呼。相对于与欧盟可再生能源指令捆绑在一起，英国可以为绿色能源电厂自由设定一个不那么严格的目标。
London&sfinancial district would look to past glories. It thrived as an offshore centrefor deposit-taking and loan-making in dollars long before Britain joined theEU. Outside the club, it would be freer to
itself as a freewheeling hubfor emerging- finance&a sort of Singapore on steroids. Free of theobligation to abide by ever-changing EU rules on alter investments,hedge funds that have left London might be lured back. The burden of impendingEuropean Solvency 2 regulations on the insurance industry would become lessonerous.
伦敦金融区会期待过往的荣光。早在英国加入欧盟很久之前，这地方就作为美元存贷款业务的离岸中心而繁荣。脱离欧盟之后，它就会更便利地用不受约束的新兴市场融资枢纽来推销自己&&类似于新加坡一样。由于不用承担欧盟关于替代投资规则的责任，离开伦敦的对冲基金也许会被吸引回来。随着针对保险业的欧洲偿付能力2规则的临近，负担也不会那么繁重。
Yeta bonfire of regulations would smoulder rather than blaze. Domestic and globals to greenery constrain Britain&s energy , for example. And EUregulations bite less hard than is commonly supposed. Britain already has oneof the most flexible labour s in the rich world (employees can opt out ofthe 48-hour week). This helps to explain why the unemployment rate is as low asin America or Canada, despite a more sluggish .
然而规则之营火也是闷燃而非熊熊火焰。例如，国内国际对绿色植物的承诺限制了英国的能源政策。而且欧盟规则的伤害也没有通常认为的那么大。在富裕世界，英国的劳动力市场是最灵活的（雇员可以不接受每周48小时工作制）。这有助于解释，尽管经济更加停滞，英国的失业率却与美国和加拿大一样低。
Productregulations would be harder to junk than labour laws. The British suppliers toAirbus, the Franco-German aircraft manufacturer, have to comply with exactingstandards. But these exist not because of meddling by Brussels, but to ensureaircraft are safe. Similarly, a minimum standard of food safety stops a race tothe bottom by competing firms. British ones would still have to Europe&s product regulations in order to export there. A
set ofregulations tailored for the home
would only add to red tape.
产品规则比劳工法更难废弃。空中客车（法德合资的飞机制造商）的英国供货商，必须遵守严格的标准。但这并不仅是因为布鲁塞尔的干涉，而是为了保证飞机的安全。类似的，食品安全最低标准阻止公司的无底线竞争。为了出口到欧盟，英国公司仍然需要遵守欧盟的产品规则。为国内市场制定单独规则仅是增加了官样文章而已。
Thatgoes for the City, too. Global finance favours common standards, such as theBasel accords on bank capital. And, far from racing to the bottom, countrieswith large financial sectors are now as likely to create even tougher rules.The Bank of England has hinted that Basel is not strong enough.
这同样适用于伦敦商业区。国际资金更加喜欢普遍标准，例如针对银行资本的巴塞尔协议。而且，具有庞大金融部门的国家更可能制定更加强硬的规则，而不是任由无底线竞争。英国央行就曾暗示说巴塞尔协议不够强硬。
Andsome immediate gains would evaporate as special-interest groups redirectedtheir attention from Brussels to Westminster. British farmers would lose &2.7billion in EU subsidies once Britain left. They are a noisy lobby group, and itis unlikely that the
would hang on to all that cash. The farminglobby would also try to stand in the way of lowering tariffs on food importedfrom beyond Europe, potentially depriving the
of a bargaining chipin trade negotiations with big emerging s such as Brazil and India.
当特殊利益集团把注意力从布鲁塞尔重新转移到威斯敏斯特，眼前利益就会蒸发。一旦英国脱离欧盟，英国农民就会失去270亿英镑欧盟补贴。他们可是吵闹的游说团体，因而政府想留住这笔钱也不太可能。农业游说团还会试图阻碍从欧洲以外进口食品的关税的降低，有可能降低政府在与大的新兴市场（如巴西和印度）进行贸易谈判中的筹码。
Ifthe benefits of leaving the single
are qualified, what of the costs? Theprice of exclusion is much smaller than when Britain joined in 1973. Tariffbarriers across the world have been steadily lowered in trade deals brokered byGATT and its or, the WTO. If import tariffs are weighted by the volumeof trade in each product, the average faced by exporters from outside the EUinto the single
has fallen to around 3%. Exporters routinely have toabsorb cost increases of this size caused by a surge in the oil price or a jumpin the exchange rate.
假设脱离统一市场的利益是可观的，那么成本又如何呢？相比于1973年加入欧盟的时候，脱离的成本要小得多。由于关贸总协定（GATT）及其继任者世贸组织（WTO）所制定的一系列协议，全世界的关税壁垒已经逐步降低。如果按照每种商品的体积计算进口关税，非欧盟成员国的出口商向统一市场出口货物所面临的关税已经降低到大约3%。出口商们通常不得不消化同等数量的由于油价上涨或者汇率下跌造成的成本增加。
Evenso, the impact on industries such as food and textiles, where tariffs are muchhigher than the average, would be far from mild. British dairy exports wouldincur an import tax of 55% to reach the EU , with tariffs on some itemsof more than 200%. Cheddar cheese would face a tariff of &167 per 100 themark-up on Stilton would be &141. Average tariffs on clothing would push uptheir price in European s by 12%.
尽管如此，由于关税高于平均水平，脱离欧盟对食品工业和纺织工业的影响远非温和可以形容。英国的奶制品出口到欧洲市场需要缴纳55%的进口关税，而有些商品被课税超过200%。切达干酪面临每100千克167欧元的关税；斯蒂尔顿奶酪则是141欧元。服装类在欧洲市场的销售价格由于平均关税将增加12%。
Partsof Britain&s car industry would move out. British-based producers would face a4% tariff on car-equipment sales to the EU, and there would be pressure toimpose tariffs on components imported from it. Factories owned by carmakerswith plants and
chains in other parts of the EU would be most at risk.Vital car components might be held up by customs as they leave the continent. Acheap pound and a flexible workforce may not be enough to keep GM in Britain,for instance, even though it sells many cars there.
部分英国汽车生产商将搬离。英国的汽车生产商将汽车设备出口到欧盟时，将面临4%的关税，而从欧盟进口汽车配件也要面临课税的压力。在欧盟其他国家有工厂和供应链的汽车生产商是最危险的。一旦脱离欧洲大陆，关键汽车零部件的生产将会被拖延。例如，英镑贬值和弹性劳动力市场对于将GM留在英国是不够的，尽管GM在英国卖了很多车。
Thecalculation would be slightly different for other carmakers. Only a smallfraction of the 300,000 cars Jaguar Land Rover makes in Britain are destinedfor the EU . A lot of Minis, made in Britain by BMW, are also soldoutside Europe, where they attract an import tariff anyway. Much of whatdistinguishes a Jaguar from a Mercedes is that it is designed and made inBritain (as are lots of components). There would be little benefit, but hugecosts to the brand, in shifting production elsewhere. Japanese carmakers wouldsuffer: most of their British output is sold in the EU, says John Leech ofKPMG, a consultancy. But they cannot easily switch production to continentalfactories, and many of their supplies come from Japan. They would stick aroundlonger than many think.
其他汽车生产厂商的成本-受益计算有些微不同。捷豹（Jaguar）路虎（Land Rover）在英国生产的30万辆车中只有一小部分是针对欧盟市场。在英国生产的BMW Minis，大部分也是在欧洲之外销售，无论如何都要面临进口关税。Jaguar与梅赛德斯（Mercedes）的不同在于，Jaguar整个在英国设计制造，而Mercedes只是零部件制造。将生产转移到其他地方，几乎无利可图，反而成本巨大。日本汽车厂商也会受苦：毕马威会计师事务所（KPMG，一家咨询公司）的约翰&里奇（John Leech）表示，他们在英国生产的汽车大部分都是出口欧盟的。然而，他们无法轻易将生产转移到欧洲大陆的工厂，许多产品供应来自日本本土。他们会留在英国，停留时间超过很多人的预期。
Overtime, though, the general drift of business investment would be away fromBritain and towards the continent. That goes for finance, too. If London wantsto be the regional hub for trading China&s currency, it will need to retain itsposition as the main centre for settling trades of cash and derivatives ineuros. Some in Europe resent this: the governor of France&s central bankcomplained this week that euro deals should be done in euroland. Without theshield of single- rules, London could lose out to rival EU centres.
然而，随着时间的推移，商业投资的总体趋势是远离英国，投向欧洲。金融方面亦如是。如果伦敦想要成为人民币交易的区域中心，其需要保持作为欧元现金和衍生物稳定交易的主要中心这一地位。欧洲有些人对此有抱怨：法国央行主管本周抱怨说，欧元业务就应该在欧元区进行交易。没有了统一市场的保护，伦敦会输给欧盟其他的金融中心竞争者。
Financiersfrom today&s rising economic powers, in Asia and Latin America, are keener onaccess to a European
of 500m than on the light regulation that drewAmerican banks to London in the 1950s and 1960s. TheCityUK, a lobby group,studied 147 siting decisions between 2006 and 2012. It found that more thantwo-fifths of finance firms gave access to European s as a core reasonfor choosing London. Although the single
in financial services is stilla work in progress, &passporting & entitle investment firms, banks andinsurers based in Britain to
branches or provide services throughoutthe EEA.
来自亚洲和拉美这些崛起中经济体的金融家们，相对于在年代吸引了很多美国银行加入的轻微管制政策，对于5亿欧盟市场则更加热衷。游说团体TheCityUK研究了年间的147个选址决策。它发现无分之二的金融公司选择伦敦是基于一个核心原因&&可接入欧洲市场。尽管金融服务的单一市场还在建设过程中，&护照权利&还是能授权英国投资公司、银行和保险公司在EEA内建立分支机构、提供服务。
Aerospaceis another industry that relies on frictionless trade with the rest of thecontinent. Britain has the world&s largest industry outside America, but it wouldlose ground to France. The high-tech bits of production, such as the making ofcarbon-fibre wing spars, could not speedily be replicated elsewhere. Butsuppliers of basic parts, such as metal brackets, would be vulnerable. Bigmanufacturers like Airbus prefer to keep
chains simple. They mightsponsor entry by new suppliers in the EU to avoid a customs barrier.
航空航天工业是另一个依赖与大陆其他国家顺畅贸易的产业。除了美国，英国的航空航天工业规模世界最大，但还是会惨败给法国。产品的高科技部分，例如碳纤维翼梁的制造，很难在其他地方快速复制。但是基础部件的供应，如金属支架，又易受冲击。大的制造商如空中客车公司，倾向于维持简单的供应链。为了规避关税壁垒，他们也许会赞助欧盟的新供货商的进入。
Thesereallocations of ed capital would take years or decades. By contrast,Britain and its erstwhile EU partners would have to decide quickly how peopleon the wrong side of newly erected barriers to the free movement of labourshould be treated. Around 2.3m people from EU countries were living in Britainin 2011, up from 1.1m in 2004; around 1.7m Britons have gone the other way. The of residency for such migrants would no longer be automatic. Forcedrepatriation would be damaging to all countries.
这些固定资产的重新布局需要耗费数年甚至数十年。与之相比，英国和它的欧盟伙伴们需要尽快决定怎样对待位于新建立的壁垒错误一侧的劳动力的自由流动问题。居住在英国的欧盟国家人口从2004年的110万增加到了2011年的230万；而有170万英国人居住在欧盟。这些移民的居留权不再被自动赋予。强制遣返对所有国家而言都是伤害。
Thesimplest solution would be to offer
to all those resident inBritain at a particular date, in return for a similar offer to Britons livingin other parts of Europe. Anticipation of such an amnesty would spur a rush toand from Britain in the run-up to its exit. As the drawbridge eventually rose,businesses would suffer. London&s growing tech cluster, as well as the City,relies heavily on the free flow of young workers from other parts of Europe.
最简单的解决办法就是，在特定时间内为这些英国居民提供公民身份，以此来换取欧洲其他国家对英国人相同的对待。值此英国酝酿脱离欧盟之时，对于此种特殊的预期会造成人流急速进出英国。联系之桥日渐升高，商业随之受损。伦敦成长中的高科技集群，以及伦敦商业区，严重依赖欧洲其他各国的年轻从业人员的自由流动。
Anotherhuge disruption would be to trade beyond Europe. Britain would swiftly have tonegotiate bilateral deals with dozens of countries. The
of Iceland,Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, which make up the European Free TradeAssociation (EFTA), a club of European refusers loosely linked to the EU,suggests it is usually
to obtain similar s to those won by EUnegotiators. The EFTA countries tend to rush in behind the EU, though in somecases&South Korea, for example&they go first. But the bigger club can winslightly better s. &The EU is more powerful than we are,& says DidierChambovey of Switzerland&s state secretariat for
affairs. A deal withBritain would be top of few countries& priorities.
另外一件巨大损失则是与欧洲之外国家的贸易。很快英国就需要跟数十个国家进行双边贸易谈判。欧洲自由贸易联盟（EFTA，由冰岛、列支敦士登、挪威和瑞士组成，是一个拒绝加入欧盟的国家组成的组织，与欧盟保持松散联系）的经验表明，通过谈判获得与欧盟类似的贸易政策是可能的。EFTA国家往往紧随欧盟的贸易谈判脚步，有时候（如跟韩国谈判时）也会先于欧盟展开谈判。但是，大组织往往可以赢得更好的贸易条款。&欧盟比我们更有影响力，&瑞士负责外交事务的国务秘书Didier Chambovey如是说。与英国的贸易协议并非很多国家的首选。
Britainwould have less diplomatic and
clout, too. For the Americans, aBritain that is disengaged from the rest of Europe would be a much less usefuland influential ally. For NATO, a Britain that is semi-detached from Europewould weaken the ties that bind the continent and its defence to the UnitedStates at a time when those ties are already under strain because of slasheddefence budgets and America&s strategic &rebalancing& towards Asia. Anotherlikely casualty would be the budding Anglo-French defence treaty, seen by bothcountries as a way to help themselves continue to punch above their weight.
英国的军事和外交影响力也会降低。对美国而言，脱离欧洲大陆的英国，作为盟友的影响力和作用比以前小了。而对于北约（NATO）而言，从欧洲半独立的英国会削弱与美国的联系，这种联系将欧洲大陆防卫与美国捆绑在一起，而当此之时，美国在战略上&重新制衡&亚洲，大幅削减北约的防卫预算，因此与北约的纽带日益紧绷。另一个可能的受害者则是萌芽中的英法防御条约，该条约被两国认为有助于对付比他们强大的国家。
Viking spirit, or Swiss rules?& 北欧灵魂，还是瑞士条款？
Althougha complete exit from Europe is certainly , few British Euroscepticswant it. They view the common
as a pearl surrounded by a dismalencrustation of European bureaucracy and regulation. What they would reallylike to do is pull back until Britain&s relationship with Europe becomes onebased on free trade, with the minimum necessary regulation. In effect, theywant to create the kind of Europe that British Conservatives fought to join inthe 1970s. Once it became clear that Britain was falling out of the EU, theycould grab at two halfway options: a Norwegian one and a Swiss one.
尽管英国完全脱离欧洲十分可能，但是很少有英国的欧洲怀疑论者想要这样的结果。他们将统一市场视作被欧洲的官僚主义和管制之阴沉污垢包围的珍珠。他们真正想要做的，是在英欧之间变成基于自由贸易以及最低必要管制的关系之后，回归。实际上，他们想要建立1970年代英国保守党曾为之不懈努力加入的那种欧洲。一旦英国脱离欧洲逐步明朗化，他们有两条折中道路可选：要么与挪威一样，要么与瑞士一样。
Togetherwith Iceland and Liechtenstein, oil-rich Norway is about as close to the EU asit is
to be without actually becoming a member. It simply belongs tothe EEA. The EU is broadly happy with the arrangement, partly because Norwaypays into its coffers (indeed, it pays slightly more per head than Britain). Asimilar arrangement might well be obtained.
富油国挪威与欧盟关系之近，就差真正成为欧盟成员，冰岛与列支敦士登也与之相似。它仅仅加入了欧洲经济区（EEA）。欧盟成员对此安排表示了广泛的满意，一定程度上因为挪威为之提供财源（事实上，挪威人均支出确比英国多一点）。英国也可能获得类似的安排。
Manybusinesses would hardly notice the difference. But a few would suffer minorirritation. Although EEA countries are part of the single , businessesmust complete customs and VAT forms when goods are shipped into and out of theEU. For big companies serving big customers, this is no problem. For smallerones it can be a nuisance. Moods of Norway, an echt-Norwegian fashioncompany (its logo is a tractor), has solved the problem by setting up a smallsubsidiary in Sweden, which is a member of the EU. The subsidiary handlescustoms clearance for the European boutiques that carry Moods of Norway&sclothes. Small, export-oriented British businesses would end up doing the same.
很多工商企业难以觉察其中的差别。但是有些会感到些许烦恼。尽管EEA国家也是统一市场的成员，但是其企业的商品进出欧盟时，仍然需要缴纳完全的关税和增值税。对于服务大客户的大公司而言，这不是个问题。对小公司而言就令人讨厌了。挪威情调（一家地道的挪威时尚公司，其商标是个拖拉机）通过在瑞典（是欧盟成员）设立子公司来解决这个难题。子公司负责处理销售挪威情调衣饰的欧洲精品店的清关手续。出口导向的英国小企业也只得照此办理。
IfBritain were to join the Norwegian club, though, it would remain bound byvirtually all EU regulations, including the working-time directive and almosteverything dreamed up in Brussels in future. Once out of the EU, the countrywould have little say in the regulations and laws that would continue to bindits industry. It would be consulted by the European Commission but would haveno voice in the increasingly powerful European Parliament, and no vote. InEuro-jargon, it would be a decision-shaper, but not a decision-maker.
如果英国加入挪威俱乐部，它将仍受制于欧盟的管理，包括工作时数指令，以及将来布鲁塞尔任何可能的拍脑袋决定。一旦脱离欧盟，英国对于可能继续损害其产业发展的管制措施和法律的制定几无话语权。欧洲委员会还是会咨询英国的意见，但是在权力日渐强大的欧洲议会中，英国将失声，也没有投票权。用欧洲行话来说，英国是决策承担者，而非决策制定者。
Officialsand lobbyists would ly be unaware of discussions about
thatcould affect British industry, except at second hand, through officials in afriendly nation. &We take our Scandinavian colleagues out to lunch and ask themwhat happened,& explains Petter Brubakk of NHO, Norway&s mainbusiness lobby. It would depend on other countries to fight its corner, asNorway now relies on Britain to resist proposed EU
on offshoreoil-drilling. It would be as though Britain maintained a golden fax machinelinked to Brussels, which cost billions of pounds a year to run and from whichregulations issued ceaselessly. It could ignore the faxes about farming andfishing: members of the EEA are allowed to run their own agriculture policies.But it would have to obey the others.
官员和说客经常无视可能影响英国产业的法律方面的讨论，除非是从友好国家传过来的二手消息。&我们与北欧同事共进午餐，问他们发生何事，&挪威主要的商业游说团体NHO的Petter Brubakk解释道。它将依赖其他国家来背水一战，正如挪威现在背靠英国，共同抵制欧盟关于离岸石油开采的法律提案。这就好比英国与欧盟间通过一台黄金传真机进行联系，维持其运行和接收不停颁布的规则，每年耗费数十亿英镑。它可以无视农业和渔业的规则：EEA成员允许制定自己的农业政策。但必须得遵守其他的规则。
The Norwegian option could well fail for domestic reasons. As soon as British MPslearn that Norway has to swallow almost every regulation that comes out ofBrussels, despite having virtually no power to shape them, they will waver.When they also learn that Norway has to pay for the privilege, they may rejectit outright.
走挪威的道路也可能因为国内因素而走不通。当英国国会成员得知挪威几乎不得不全盘接受布鲁塞尔制定的规则，尽管实际上他们无力决定什么，他们就会变成墙头草。而当他们进而得知挪威需要付费才能获得特权，他们会彻底地抵制它（欧盟）。
Britainmight, however, seek a more distant relationship. It could steer clear of theEEA but join EFTA, which it helped to set up in 1960. Optimistically, it couldcome to look rather like Switzerland.
然而，英国也许可以寻求一种更加疏远的关系。它可以绕开EEA，加入欧洲自由贸易联盟（EFTA），英国曾在1960年帮助建立这个联盟。乐观来看，有点像是瑞士。
Switzerlanddoes business with EU countries through bilateral deals, and by routinelyaligning its regulations with those made in Brussels. To an extent, it can pickand choose. In the same position, Britain could drop some irksome labour rules.It could also move to co-operate more, and trade more freely, in some areasthan in others. Switzerland has a comprehensive bilateral
with the EUcovering trade in goods, but no equivalent
for financial services.
瑞士通过双边协议和不断与欧盟规则进行对准，与欧盟国家开展贸易。一定程度上，它可以挑选。同理，英国也可以摒弃一些讨厌的劳动力条款。在一些领域，还可以走向更加合作，更多的自由贸易。瑞士与欧盟签订有全面的双边协议，涵盖了商品贸易，但却没有金融服务的等效协议。
Switzerlandhas got into the occasional trade
with the EU, over Gruy&re cheese forexample. Still, for the most part it has secured good access to Europeans so far. Its firms have subsidiaries in EU countries through which theycan trade freely. And non-membership of the EEA means Switzerland has remainedpartly aloof from financial regulations emanating from Brussels. But the Swisshave come up with their own, often extremely stringent, financial regulations,partly in fear of losing access to EU customers.
以瑞士格鲁耶尔干酪为例，瑞士与欧盟不时发生贸易争端。但是迄今为止，向欧盟市场输出商品大体上还是可靠的。尽管可以自由贸易，瑞士公司还是在欧盟国家设立子公司。而非EEA成员也意味着，瑞士一定程度上不受欧盟发出的金融规则的影响。但是瑞士通常会制定制定自己的是否严厉的金融规则，一定程度上出于担心失去欧盟消费者的原因。
Andthe country is not beyond the reach of Brussels. The Swiss are currentlyexercised over several European directives, including those covering finance,chemical factories and the movement of labour. Switzerland is hampered by thelack of an accord with the EU on financial services and by its lack ofreation in Brussels. In the broader fight against ism andfinancial over-regulation in Europe, it relies on an informal alliance withanother country that also has a big financial-services industry, as well as avaluable seat at the negotiating table: Britain.
而这个国家也并非欧盟所鞭长莫及的。瑞士最近在试验多项欧盟指令，包括金融、化工厂和劳动力流动。由于与欧盟在金融服务方面缺乏协议，而在布鲁塞尔也缺乏代表，瑞士为此饱受束缚。在反对欧盟的保护主义和金融业过度监管的更广阔战场上，瑞士依赖与英国建立非正式联盟，二者都拥有规模巨大的金融服务业，而且在谈判桌上的地位也都颇有价值。
Inany case, it is unlikely that Britain could get similar treatment. The EU isalready trying to muscle Switzerland out of its special niche and into anarrangement more like Norway&s, where EU
would be speedily taken upby the country. Relations have become more fraught since the EU expandedeastward. The EU used to be a club of Western nations which share a broadculture with Switzerland (many share a border with it, too) and tolerated itspeculiarities. The club is now bigger and more bureaucratic, and includes eastEuropean countries which were forced to swallow much unpalatable stuff as theprice of entry to the club. There is little chance that Britain, a far biggercountry with a history of being difficult, would be allowed to squeeze inalongside Switzerland.
无论如何，英国想要获得类似对待都不可能。欧盟已经在尝试把瑞士排挤出现今的特殊位置，让它变得更像挪威，如此欧盟规条在这个国家才能被迅速接受。自从欧盟东扩后，其成员关系更加令人忧虑。曾经，欧盟是西方国家的俱乐部，他们与瑞士拥有广泛的共同文化（许多还与瑞士共享国界），能够容忍其特殊性。现如今，这俱乐部更大了，也更官僚了，囊括了东欧国家，而作为加入这俱乐部的代价，他们被逼生吞了许多不可口的东西。而英国，这个一向难相处的更大的国家，想要被允许挤进去跟瑞士站在一起，几乎不可能。
And don&t come back& 走了，就不要回来
Nocountry has ever left the European Union (though Greenland, an autonomousdependency of Denmark&s, voted to leave in 1982). The halfway options of Norwayand Switzerland were offered largely in hopes of tempting both to become fullmembers one day. Britain would be travelling in the opposite direction, withouta map. In this, as in so many other ways, leaving theEU would be a colossal gamble.
没有国家脱离过欧洲（格陵兰除外，它是丹麦的自治属国，1982年表决脱离欧洲）。挪威和瑞士之所以被提供这种折中选择，很大程度上是因为寄望于吸引两国最终成为完全成员。而英国，正在盲人瞎马，南辕北辙。基于此，无论如何，脱离欧盟都是一场豪赌。
TheBritish would doubtless try to negotiate a special deal with their formerpartners, using the argument that trade benefits both sides and that Britain isitself a large
for many. But the process could take many years (it tooka decade for the much smaller Switzerland). Europe might well be more of afortress with Britain outside. And even the country&s closest friends, whowould rather keep Britain in to bolster liberal voices inside the EU, would beunlikely to be generous to a country that had chosen to leave.
毫无疑问，英国会试图与前伙伴们商讨特别协议，老调重弹什么贸易能够双赢，而对许多国家而言英国本身是个巨大市场，云云。但是谈判过程可能迁延数年（瑞士小得多，尚且用了十年）。欧盟对英国而言更多是一个外部的堡垒。即便是英国最紧密的朋友，宁愿英国留在欧盟以支持自由主义呼声，估计也不会对一个选择过脱离的国家那么大方。
Themost likely outcome would be that Britain would find itself as a scratchyoutsider with somewhat limited access to the single , almost no influenceand few friends. And one certainty: that having once departed, it would be allbut im to get back in again.
最可能的结果也许是这样：英国发现自己变成一个令人挠头的外人，进入共同市场受到些许限制，几乎没有影响力也没有朋友。有件事可以肯定：一旦脱离，想要回来就不可能了。
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